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Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)

2020-09-16 16:36:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...TEDDY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 16 the center of Teddy was located near 16.5, -49.7 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 17

2020-09-16 16:36:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 161436 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 ...TEDDY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 49.7W ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 49.7 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and Teddy could become a major hurricane by late tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America today and should spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto

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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 17

2020-09-16 16:36:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 161435 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 49.7W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......170NE 170SE 40SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 49.7W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 49.3W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.5N 50.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 50SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.0N 52.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 80SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.4N 53.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 80SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.9N 55.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.5N 56.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.1N 58.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 110SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 28.3N 62.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 31.7N 64.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 49.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 16

2020-09-16 10:38:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 160838 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 Teddy continues to quickly intensify. The latest satellite images shows that a ragged eye is present, although microwave images show it is closed in the low-levels. Satellite intensity estimates earlier were between 77- 90 kt, and the initial wind speed is set to 85 with the increasing organization. The environment appears to be ripe for rapid intensification with light shear, warm water, and a solid ring present on overnight 37 GHz microwave data. Thus a 30-kt wind increase will be forecast for the first 24 hours from the 6Z initial wind speed of 80 kt. After that time, there could be an increase in shear from the mid-oceanic trough, which should level off the wind speed, along with possibly an increase in mid-level dry air. At long range, Teddy could also be affected by the cold wake from Paulette. The intensity forecast is also uncertain considering the guidance is still catching up to the higher current intensity, but most everything shows a large major hurricane for the bulk of the forecast period, and so does the official forecast. Teddy is moving northwestward at about 10 kt. A mid-tropospheric high should steer the hurricane in that general direction and speed throughout the forecast period until early next week when a turn to the north-northwest is possible ahead of a mid-latitude trough. The biggest change to note that guidance has almost unanimously shifted westward at long range, seemingly due to a stronger central Atlantic ridge, and the NHC forecast is also moved in that direction. Unfortunately, this change does increase the threat to Bermuda, which was just hit by Hurricane Paulette, but remember the average track error at 5 days is roughly 200 miles. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 15.8N 49.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 16.8N 50.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 18.3N 51.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 19.7N 52.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 21.3N 54.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 18/1800Z 22.7N 56.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 24.2N 57.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 27.5N 62.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 31.0N 64.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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