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Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2020-09-16 10:35:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 160835 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 37(46) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 16
2020-09-16 10:34:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 160834 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 ...TEDDY NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE, FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY 4 LATER THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 49.0W ABOUT 820 MI...1315 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 49.0 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is forecast to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Teddy is likely to become a major hurricane later today and could reach category 4 strength on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America today should spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-09-16 10:34:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 160834 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 49.0W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......140NE 80SE 40SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 240SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 49.0W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 48.6W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.8N 50.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 50SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.3N 51.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 70SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.7N 52.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.3N 54.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.7N 56.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.2N 57.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 110SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 27.5N 62.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 31.0N 64.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 49.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Teddy Graphics
2020-09-16 08:47:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 06:47:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 06:47:56 GMT
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-09-16 08:46:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 160646 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Special Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 300 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 Teddy has rapidly intensified overnight. Satellite images show an eye has formed, and satellite intensity estimates are between 77- 90 kt. The initial wind speed is set to 80 kt as a blend of these data. Further strengthening is expected and Teddy could become a major hurricane later today or Thursday. The intensity forecast has been raised considerably in the short-term based on current trends, and could have to revised upward on the regular 5 am advisory. No changes to the track forecast are needed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0700Z 15.5N 48.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 16.0N 49.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 17.3N 50.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 18.8N 52.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 20.2N 53.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 18/1200Z 21.6N 54.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 23.0N 56.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 26.5N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 29.5N 62.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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