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Tropical Storm Teddy Graphics

2020-09-14 22:34:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 20:34:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 21:46:37 GMT

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Tropical Storm Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 9

2020-09-14 22:33:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 142033 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 Teddy is strengthening this afternoon. Recent satellite imagery shows a growing convective band south and west of the center and a CDO feature developing over the estimated low-level center position. The initial intensity is set to 45 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB. The environment along Teddy's forecast track features increasing SSTs and low shear for the next several days, and with the improved convective structure of the cyclone, steady strengthening is forecast. The NHC intensity prediction has been increased from the previous advisory, and shows a 25-kt increase in the next 24 hours, which is supported by the SHIPS model and some of the RII indices. Beyond that time, Teddy is forecast to reach major hurricane intensity in about 3 days. The new NHC forecast is near HCCA through the forecast period. Microwave and geostationary satellite fixes suggest an initial motion of 275/12. The track forecast reasoning is similar to that of the previous advisory. Teddy will initially be steered westward and then west-northwestward by a deep-layer ridge located over the central Atlantic. As the ridge shifts eastward through the forecast period, Teddy is forecast to turn more northwestward as it moves around the western edge of the ridge. There is a fair amount of across track spread in the guidance, with the ECMWF on the right and the GFS and HWRF on the left. Overall the guidance envelope has shifted to the left since this morning. The new NHC track has been adjusted in that direction, and lies near or a little to the right of the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 13.0N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 13.6N 45.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 14.5N 47.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 15.4N 49.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 16.6N 50.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 17.9N 52.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 19.3N 53.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 22.0N 56.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 24.5N 58.5W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Summary for Tropical Storm Teddy (AT5/AL202020)

2020-09-14 22:32:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...TEDDY STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 14 the center of Teddy was located near 13.0, -44.0 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Teddy Public Advisory Number 9

2020-09-14 22:32:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 142032 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Teddy Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 ...TEDDY STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 44.0W ABOUT 1170 MI...1880 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 44.0 West. Teddy is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected tonight through Tuesday night, followed by a northwestward motion Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast for the next several days, and Teddy is expected to become a hurricane Tuesday and could reach major hurricane strength on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Tropical Storm Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

2020-09-14 22:32:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 142032 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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