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Tropical Storm Nana Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-09-01 17:00:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 011500 PWSAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) 5(35) X(35) X(35) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUANAJA 34 X 1( 1) 23(24) 18(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-09-01 17:00:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 011500 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating the vigorous tropical disturbance located south of Jamaica that the NHC has been tracking the past few days across the Caribbean Sea. An earlier report of 35 kt winds this morning from ship MAOR4 is the basis for the 35-kt initial intensity on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen. (PTC-16) The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 285/16 kt, based mainly on past scatterometer surface wind data and passive microwave satellite fix data. A strong deep-layer to the north of the system is expected to build slowly westward over the next few days, keeping the disturbance moving in a general west-northwestward to westward direction through 48 hours, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest shortly thereafter when the system will be inland over Central America. The NHC official forecast track lies close to a blend of the simple consensus models TVCN and GFEX, and the corrected-consensus model HCCA. The disturbance has already developed an upper-level anticyclone, with outflow only restricted in the northeastern quadrant due to northeasterly shear of about 15 kt. This modest northeasterly to easterly vertical wind shear is expected to gradually subside to less than 10 kt by 48 hours, which should allow for at least some slow but steady strengthening, given that sea-surface temperatures (SST) will be 29.5-30.5 deg C along the track. Occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air might hinder development for the next 24-36 hours, but model guidance shows that the atmosphere is expected to moisten thereafter and right up until landfall. The official intensity forecast is similar to the consensus of the intensity guidance through 24 hours, and then is a little above the consensus at 36 h and 48 h due to the very warm waters, moistening atmosphere, and low shear conditions. The statistical SHIPS guidance suggests that the cyclone could reach hurricane strength just prior to landfall. This alternate scenario will be evaluated on the next advisory cycle. Due to the system's expected proximity to the north coast of Honduras and Roatan Island, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for those areas. Additional watches and possible warnings will likely be required later today for Guatemala, Belize, and the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 16.1N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 02/0000Z 16.4N 79.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 02/1200Z 16.6N 82.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 16.7N 85.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 16.8N 87.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 16.5N 89.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 04/1200Z 15.7N 91.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Nana Public Advisory Number 1
2020-09-01 17:00:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 011500 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS VIGOROUS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF JAMAICA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR NORTHERN HONDURAS AND THE OFFSHORE ROATAN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 77.5W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Guatemala-Honduras border, including Roatan Island and the Bay Islands of Honduras. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northern Honduras * Roatan Island and the Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Watch may be required for portions of Guatemala, Belize, and the southern Yucatan Peninsula later today. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 77.5 West. The system is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the system will be moving near but north of the coast of Honduras on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Additional development is expected today and on Wednesday, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form at any time. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km), mainly northeast through northwest of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Wednesday. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches will be possible over the northern portions of Honduras beginning late Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the southern coast of Jamaica, and will continue into Wednesday morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-09-01 16:58:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020 673 WTNT21 KNHC 011458 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA-HONDURAS BORDER...INCLUDING ROATAN ISLAND AND THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHERN HONDURAS * ROATAN ISLAND AND THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA... BELIZE...AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 77.5W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 77.5W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 76.8W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.4N 79.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.6N 82.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.7N 85.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.8N 87.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.5N 89.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.7N 91.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 77.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 01/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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