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Tropical Storm Nana Graphics
2020-09-02 10:42:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Sep 2020 08:42:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Sep 2020 08:42:17 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-09-02 10:41:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 020840 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Nana Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 500 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2020 Nana's Central Dense Overcast has become a little better defined, with cloud tops to -80 deg C or colder. Upper-level outflow continues to be somewhat inhibited over the northern portion of the circulation. SFMR-observed surface winds and adjusted flight-level winds from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated an intensity of 50 kt. Although northerly shear is likely to limit intensification, the environment is conducive enough for Nana to strengthen into a hurricane later today. The official intensity forecast is close to the Decay-SHIPS prediction based on the ECMWF global model forecast fields. Center fixes from the aircraft indicate that the motion continues to be generally westward, or 270/16 kt, to the south of a strong mid-level high pressure area. Over the next couple of days, the ridge is expected to be maintained or to build a little more to the west. This should keep Nana on a westward or slightly south-of-west track until it moves into Central America. The official track forecast is close to the previous one and also very close to the latest Florida State University Superensemble prediction. Observations from the aircraft and NOAA data buoy 42057 indicate that Nana is a rather small tropical cyclone, with tropical-storm-force winds extending 60 n mi or less from the center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm Nana is forecast to be a hurricane as it approaches the coast, and interests in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of this storm. Strong winds, dangerous storm surge and very heavy rainfall causing flash flooding are becoming more likely from Nana. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 17.0N 82.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 16.9N 85.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 16.8N 87.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 16.5N 89.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/0600Z 16.4N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 04/1800Z 16.1N 93.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Nana (AT1/AL162020)
2020-09-02 10:40:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NANA CONTINUES WESTWARD... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... As of 5:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 the center of Nana was located near 17.0, -82.7 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Nana Public Advisory Number 5
2020-09-02 10:40:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 020840 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nana Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 500 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2020 ...NANA CONTINUES WESTWARD... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 82.7W ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ENE OF LIMON HONDURAS ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of Belize A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * Entire coast of Belize A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Guatemala border * Roatan Island and the Bay Islands of Honduras * Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nana was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 82.7 West. Nana is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected today. A westward or west-southwestward motion is expected tonight and Thursday. On the forecast track, Nana will be moving near but north of the coast of Honduras today and likely be approaching the coast of Belize tonight and early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Nana is forecast to become a hurricane later today or tonight before it reaches the coast of Belize. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the warning area in Belize by tonight, with hurricane conditions likely over a portion of the area tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in Mexico and Guatemala by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Honduras today. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Nana is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday night: 3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches near the northern Honduras coast, southern and central Belize, northern Guatemala, and the northern portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas. 2 to 4 inches in the southeast portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. SURF: Swells generated by Nana are affecting portions of the southern coast of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, and will spread along the coasts of Honduras and Belize today and tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Nana Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-09-02 10:40:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 020840 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM NANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 0900 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BELIZE CITY 34 2 60(62) 12(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) BELIZE CITY 50 X 16(16) 11(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) BELIZE CITY 64 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 5( 5) 22(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUANAJA 34 21 55(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) GUANAJA 50 2 41(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) GUANAJA 64 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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