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Summary for Tropical Storm Nana (AT1/AL162020)
2020-09-03 01:49:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF NANA PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS... As of 7:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 the center of Nana was located near 17.0, -86.8 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Nana Public Advisory Number 7A
2020-09-03 01:49:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 022349 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nana Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 700 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2020 ...CENTER OF NANA PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 86.8W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNW OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Belize from Belize City southward to the Belize-Guatemala border. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Belize north of Belize city to the Belize-Mexico border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * The coast of Belize north of Belize city to the Belize-Mexico border * Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * Isla Roatan and the Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Guatemala border A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft located the center of Tropical Storm Nana near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 86.8 West. Nana is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a westward or west-southwestward motion is expected tonight and Thursday. On the forecast track, Nana will continue to pass just north of the Bay Islands of Honduras during the next couple of hours, and the center should make landfall on the coast of Belize later tonight or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. While Nana has not strengthened over the past several hours, strengthening is expected before landfall, and Nana could become a hurricane by the time the center reaches the coast of Belize. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 994 mb (29.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area in Belize tonight and early Thursday, with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico tonight, with hurricane conditions possible in the Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Isla Roatan and the Bay Islands tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Honduras. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Nana is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Friday: Northern coast of Honduras: 1 to 3 inches Belize, Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas and Tabasco: 3 to 6 inches, isolated totals of 8 inches The southeast portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo: 2 to 4 inches The eastern portions of the Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca: 6 to 8 inches, isolated totals of 12 inches These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides SURF: Swells generated by Nana are affecting the Cayman Islands, and are spreading along the coasts of Honduras and Belize, and along the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Nana Graphics
2020-09-02 22:41:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Sep 2020 20:41:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Sep 2020 20:41:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-09-02 22:36:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 022036 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Nana Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2020 Nana continues to feel the effects of about 15 kt of northerly vertical shear, as the low-level center is located near the northern edge of the main convective mass. Data from the last Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Mission showed that the flight-level winds at 850 mb were a little lower than earlier. However, incomplete SFMR data suggested surface winds near 50 kt, and the aircraft reported that the central pressure is near 999 mb. The initial intensity is held at 50 kt, although this could be a little generous. The initial motion is westward or 270/13 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to keep steering Nana toward the west, or maybe just south of west, for the remainder of the cyclone's life. The new forecast track, which again is changed only slightly from the previous forecast, calls for the cyclone to pass north of the Bay Islands this evening, then make landfall over central or southern Belize in about 12-18 h. Nana is running out of time to strengthen before landfall, and between that and the ongoing shear none of the intensity guidance forecasts it to become a hurricane before landfall. However, any strong convective burst could spin up the cyclone, and since the bursts have been frequent today the intensity forecast calls for Nana to strengthen to near hurricane strength at landfall. After landfall, steady weakening is expected. Several of the global models now show the remnants of Nana emerging over the Gulf of Tehuantepec in 48-60 h. However, these models continue to forecast dissipation even over water, so the forecast dissipation time is unchanged since the previous advisory. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Nana could bring hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge tonight to portions of the coast of Belize, and a hurricane warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Belize, the Bay Islands, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico by tonight. 3. Heavy rainfall with isolated maximum amounts as high as 8 to 12 inches could result in flash flooding in Belize, Guatemala, and portions of southeastern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 17.0N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 16.8N 87.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 16.6N 90.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/0600Z 16.4N 92.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/1800Z 16.2N 94.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Nana Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-09-02 22:35:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 022035 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM NANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FRONTERA MX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BELIZE CITY 34 73 7(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) BELIZE CITY 50 8 7(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BELIZE CITY 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 1 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GUANAJA 34 25 X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) GUANAJA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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