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Tropical Storm Nana Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-09-02 16:45:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 021445 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM NANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 1500 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FRONTERA MX 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MERIDA MX 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BELIZE CITY 34 10 74(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) BELIZE CITY 50 X 29(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) BELIZE CITY 64 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 16(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANAJA 34 53 2(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) GUANAJA 50 22 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) GUANAJA 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-09-02 16:44:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 021444 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM NANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 1500 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-GUATEMALA BORDER. THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF GUATEMALA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-GUATEMALA BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF BELIZE NORTH OF BELIZE CITY TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUERTO COSTA MAYA TO CHETUMAL * THE COAST OF BELIZE NORTH OF BELIZE CITY TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER * CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF GUATEMALA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER * ISLA ROATAN AND THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE ISSUED FOR ISLA ROATAN AND THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 84.6W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 84.6W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 83.7W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.0N 86.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.8N 88.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.6N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.5N 93.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 84.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 02/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Nana Graphics
2020-09-02 13:47:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Sep 2020 11:47:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Sep 2020 09:32:35 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Nana (AT1/AL162020)
2020-09-02 13:46:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS NANA CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... As of 8:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 the center of Nana was located near 17.1, -83.7 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Nana Public Advisory Number 5A
2020-09-02 13:46:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 021146 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nana Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 800 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2020 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS NANA CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 83.7W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NE OF LIMON HONDURAS ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM E OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of Belize A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * Entire coast of Belize A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Guatemala border * Roatan Island and the Bay Islands of Honduras * Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. Hurricane warnings will be issued for portions of the coast of Belize later this morning. A Tropical Storm Warning will likely be issued for Roatan Island and the Bay Islands of Honduras later this morning. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nana was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 83.7 West. Nana is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected today. A westward or west-southwestward motion is expected tonight and Thursday. On the forecast track, Nana will be moving near but north of the coast of Honduras today and likely be approaching the coast of Belize tonight and early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Nana is forecast to become a hurricane later today or tonight before it reaches the coast of Belize. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from an NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the warning area in Belize by tonight, with hurricane conditions likely over a portion of the area tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in Mexico and Guatemala by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Honduras today. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Nana is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday night: 3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches near the northern Honduras coast, southern and central Belize, northern Guatemala, and the northern portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas. 2 to 4 inches in the southeast portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. SURF: Swells generated by Nana are affecting portions of the southern coast of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, and will spread along the coasts of Honduras and Belize today and tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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