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Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-09-02 04:37:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 020237 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Nana Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 Deep convection redeveloped over the center of Nana during the late afternoon and recent microwave imagery has revealed a small, well-defined low-level eye-like feature, and convective banding around the southwestern portion of the circulation. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft that has provided a couple of center fixes within the past hour or two has measured a peak 850-mb flight-level wind of 62 kt, and believable SFMR winds of around 50 kt, which supports an initial intensity of 50 kt. Data from aircraft indicated that the minimum pressure is around 999 mb. Nana is moving westward or 275/16 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone should steer it westward over the next day or so. After that time, the ridge is forecast to build west-southwestward and the dynamical models indicate that this will cause Nana to turn west-southwestward by Thursday. On this track, Nana is expected to approach the coast of Belize late Wednesday night or early Thursday, and move inland over Belize and Guatemala later that day. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario but has trended slightly southward, which seems reasonable given that Nana is vertically deep and is more likely to feel the deep-layered east-northeasterly flow. The new NHC track forecast is close to the FSU Superensemble and the HFIP corrected consensus model. The tropical storm is currently within an environment of light to moderate northeasterly shear. This shear does not seem to be strong enough to prevent strengthening during the next 12-24 hours, and the NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly faster rate of intensification during that time. This is in agreement with the latest SHIPS model output and the HCCA and HWRF models, and calls for Nana to become a hurricane within 24 hours. The shear is forecast to become more northerly just before landfall, and this is likely to slow the intensification process. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall, and the low-level circulation is expected to dissipate over Guatemala or southeastern Mexico by day 3. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm Nana is forecast to be a hurricane as it approaches the coast, and interests in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and Yucatan should closely monitor the progress of this storm. Strong winds, dangerous storm surge and very heavy rainfall causing flash flooding are becoming more likely from Nana. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 17.0N 80.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 17.1N 83.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 17.0N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 16.8N 88.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/0000Z 16.5N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 04/1200Z 16.2N 93.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Nana Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-09-02 04:36:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 020236 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM NANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 0300 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) COZUMEL MX 34 2 5( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BELIZE CITY 34 1 23(24) 53(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) BELIZE CITY 50 X 3( 3) 31(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 2( 2) 24(26) 4(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GUANAJA 34 2 61(63) 4(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) GUANAJA 50 X 31(31) 4(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) GUANAJA 64 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Nana Public Advisory Number 4
2020-09-02 04:36:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 020236 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nana Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS NANA A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 80.9W ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM ENE OF LIMON HONDURAS ABOUT 485 MI...775 KM E OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of Belize A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * Entire coast of Belize A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Guatemala border * Roatan Island and the Bay Islands of Honduras * Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nana was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 80.9 West. Nana is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A westward or west-southwestward motion is expected Wednesday night and Thursday. On the forecast track, Nana will be moving near but north of the coast of Honduras on Wednesday and likely be approaching the coast of Belize Wednesday night and early Thursday. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Nana is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday or Wednesday night before it reaches the coast of Belize. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the warning area in Belize by late Wednesday, with hurricane conditions likely over a portion of the area Wednesday night and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in Mexico and Guatemala late Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Honduras on Wednesday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Nana is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches in Belize and northern Guatemala. 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected across northern Honduras and the southeast portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. SURF: Swells generated by Nana are affecting portions of the southern coast of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, and will spread along the coasts of Honduras and Belize on Wednesday and Wednesday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-09-02 04:36:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 020236 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM NANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 0300 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUERTO COSTA MAYA TO CHETUMAL * ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER * ROATAN ISLAND AND THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS * CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF GUATEMALA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 80.9W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 80.9W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 80.1W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.1N 83.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.0N 86.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.8N 88.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.5N 90.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.2N 93.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 80.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 02/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Nana Public Advisory Number 3A
2020-09-02 01:56:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 012356 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nana Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 ...NANA MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 80.1W ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM ENE OF LIMON HONDURAS ABOUT 535 MI...865 KM E OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of Belize A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * Entire coast of Belize A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Guatemala border * Roatan Island and the Bay Islands of Honduras * Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nana was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 80.1 West. Nana is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, Nana will be moving near but north of the coast of Honduras on Wednesday and likely be approaching the coast of Belize Wednesday night and early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Nana could become a hurricane just prior to landfall early Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center, mainly northeast through northwest of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area beginning Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area by late Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Wednesday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Nana is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches in Belize, and 2 to 4 inches across northern Honduras and the southeast portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the southern coast of Jamaica, and will continue into Wednesday morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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