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Tropical Storm Nana Graphics
2020-09-02 01:56:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2020 23:56:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2020 22:13:34 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Nana (AT1/AL162020)
2020-09-02 00:12:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NANA MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE... As of 8:00 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 the center of Nana was located near 16.9, -80.1 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Nana Graphics
2020-09-01 23:35:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2020 21:35:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2020 21:35:07 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-09-01 22:55:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 012055 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Nana Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 Although convection has waned somewhat since the previous advisory due to mid-level dry air entrainment, Nana still has enough deep convection over and surrounding the low-level center to keep the intensity at 45 kt. Upper-level outflow has continued to improve, with the associated anticyclone becoming more symmetrical. Another reconnaissance mission is scheduled for this evening. The initial motion estimate is 275/16 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous track forecast or reasoning. A pronounced deep-layer to the north of Nana is forecast to remain intact and even build westward over the next few days, keeping Nana moving in a general westward direction for the next 36 hours or so. Thereafter, the aforementioned ridge is expected to build west-southwestward across southern Mexico, driving the cyclone west-southwestward as well across northern Central America. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the simple consensus models TVCN and GFEX, and the corrected- consensus models NOAA-HCCA and FSSE. The current northeasterly 15 kt of vertical wind shear and dry air intrusions should inhibit development for next 24 hours or so. However, the GFS and ECMWF models both forecast the shear to gradually decrease during the next 48 hours, becoming near 5 kt by 36 hours. The lower vertical shear, coupled with the already impressive outflow pattern, sea-surface temperatures of 29.5-30.5 deg C, and a moistening mid-level environment should allow for gradual strengthening for the next 24 hours, followed by more significant intensification thereafter, which will continue right up until landfall occurs. The NHC official intensity forecast is a blend of the simple consensus intensity model IVCN, and the corrected-consensus models NOAA-HCCA and FSSE. A Tropical Storm Warning and Tropical Storm Watch have been issued for the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula and the Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala, respectively. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm Nana is now forecast to be a hurricane as it approaches the coast, and interests in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and Yucatan should closely monitor the progress of this storm. Strong winds, dangerous storm surge and very heavy rainfall causing flash flooding are becoming more likely from Nana. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 16.8N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 17.1N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 17.3N 84.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 17.2N 87.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 16.9N 89.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 04/0600Z 16.5N 91.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Nana Public Advisory Number 3
2020-09-01 22:51:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 012051 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nana Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 ...NANA MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCH ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 79.3W ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM E OF LIMON HONDURAS ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM E OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal. The government of Guatemala has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northern Honduras * Roatan Island and the Bay Islands of Honduras * Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * Belize A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nana was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 79.3 West. Nana is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, Nana will be moving near but north of the coast of Honduras on Wednesday and likely be approaching the coast of Belize on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Nana could become a hurricane just prior to landfall on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center, mainly northeast through northwest of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area by late Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas by late Wednesday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Nana is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches in Belize, and 2 to 4 inches across northern Honduras and the southeast portion of the Mexican state of Quintan Roo. SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the southern coast of Jamaica, and will continue into Wednesday morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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