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Hurricane Nana Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2020-09-03 04:52:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 845 FONT11 KNHC 030251 PWSAT1 HURRICANE NANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BELIZE CITY 34 88 X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane Nana Forecast Advisory Number 8

2020-09-03 04:51:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 030251 TCMAT1 HURRICANE NANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-GUATEMALA BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF BELIZE NORTH OF BELIZE CITY TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUERTO COSTA MAYA TO CHETUMAL * THE COAST OF BELIZE NORTH OF BELIZE CITY TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER * CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF GUATEMALA * ISLA ROATAN AND THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 87.5W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 87.5W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 86.8W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.8N 89.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.4N 91.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.0N 93.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 87.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 03/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Hurricane Nana (AT1/AL162020)

2020-09-03 04:51:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES NANA HAS BECOME A HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE OVERNIGHT... As of 10:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 the center of Nana was located near 17.0, -87.5 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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Hurricane Nana Public Advisory Number 8

2020-09-03 04:51:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 030251 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Nana Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2020 ...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES NANA HAS BECOME A HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 87.5W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NE OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Belize from Belize City southward to the Belize-Guatemala border. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Belize north of Belize city to the Belize-Mexico border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * The coast of Belize north of Belize city to the Belize-Mexico border * Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * Isla Roatan and the Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Guatemala border A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nana was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 87.5 West. Nana is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a westward or west-southwestward motion is expected tonight and Thursday. On the forecast track, Nana will make landfall along the coast of Belize within the Hurricane Warning area overnight, and move inland over Belize and Guatemala on Thursday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little additional change in strength is expected before Nana makes landfall. Rapid weakening is expected on Thursday as Nana moves farther inland. Nana is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions and tropical storm conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area in Belize through early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico through early Thursday, with hurricane conditions possible in the Hurricane Watch area overnight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Isla Roatan and the Bay Islands for a few more hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Honduras. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Nana is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Friday: Northern coast of Honduras: 2 to 4 inches Belize: 4 to 8 inches, isolated totals of 10 inches Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas and Tabasco: 3 to 6 inches, isolated totals of 8 inches The southeast portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo: 2 to 4 inches The eastern portions of the Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca: 6 to 8 inches, isolated totals of 12 inches These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Nana are affecting the coasts of Honduras and Belize, and the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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