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Tropical Storm AMANDA Forecast Advisory Number 23
2014-05-28 10:34:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED MAY 28 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 280833 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 0900 UTC WED MAY 28 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 112.4W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 112.4W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 112.5W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 15.0N 111.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 15.8N 110.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.6N 109.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.2N 109.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 17.5N 109.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 17.0N 110.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 16.0N 110.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 112.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 22
2014-05-28 04:38:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 280238 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 800 PM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014 Amanda's cloud pattern continues to lose organization. Several microwave overpasses during the past 6 to 8 hours show that the center of the cyclone is exposed to the south of the nearest deep convection and is located farther south than previous estimated. Late-afternoon visible imagery confirmed these findings, with geostationary imagery also showing the convection warming and shrinking in coverage. The degradation in organization has resulted in a significant decrease of satellite intensity estimates since this afternoon. The initial intensity is somewhat uncertain since the Dvorak technique does not work well for rapidly weakening cyclones but is reduced to 60 kt based on a blend of T- and CI numbers from TAFB and NESDIS SAB. Additional weakening is likely as south-southwesterly shear, the entrainment of drier and more stable air, and a cooler ocean surface take their toll on Amanda. Even though the shear is forecast to decrease in 24 to 36 hours, it appears that it will be too late for the cyclone to overcome the combined effect of these negative factors for intensification. Remnant low status is now forecast in 72 hours, although it could occur sooner. The official forecast is lower relative to the previous one and near but a bit lower than a combination of the multi-model consensus, Decay-SHIPS, and LGEM. Center fixes suggest that the motion had been west-northwesterly throughout the day, and the initial motion estimate is left of the previous one or 305 degrees at 3 kt. The cyclone remains embedded in a weak steering environment between a low- to mid-level ridge to the east-northeast and a mid- to upper-level trough to the northwest. This synoptic pattern should allow for a generally slow northward or north-northeastward motion for the next few days before Amanda degenerates into a remnant low and turns westward or southwestward. Should Amanda weaken faster than forecast, little motion is expected, and its remnants could turn eastward in an anomalous low-level westerly flow. The official forecast is on the far western side of the guidance envelope, and is much slower than the previous forecast due primarily to the more southern initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 14.6N 112.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 15.0N 112.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 15.8N 112.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 16.5N 111.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 17.0N 111.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 17.1N 111.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z 16.8N 111.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0000Z 16.5N 111.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm AMANDA Forecast Advisory Number 22
2014-05-28 04:38:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED MAY 28 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 280237 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 0300 UTC WED MAY 28 2014 CORRECTED TO REVISE WIND SPEED FORECASTS IN LAST TWO PERIODS THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 112.9W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 112.9W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 112.9W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 15.0N 112.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.8N 112.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 16.5N 111.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.0N 111.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.1N 111.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 16.8N 111.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 16.5N 111.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 112.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Storm AMANDA Graphics
2014-05-28 04:32:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 May 2014 02:32:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 May 2014 02:31:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm AMANDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2014-05-28 04:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED MAY 28 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 280231 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 0300 UTC WED MAY 28 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) ISLA CLARION 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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