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Hurricane AMANDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21

2014-05-27 22:35:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE MAY 27 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 272035 PWSEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 2100 UTC TUE MAY 27 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 4( 6) 22(28) 17(45) 16(61) X(61) 1(62) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 9(20) 1(21) X(21) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 4(12) 3(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Summary for Hurricane AMANDA (EP1/EP012014)

2014-05-27 22:35:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...AMANDA WEAKENS... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue May 27 the center of AMANDA was located near 15.0, -112.6 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

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Hurricane AMANDA Public Advisory Number 21

2014-05-27 22:35:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 272035 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE AMANDA ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 200 PM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014 ...AMANDA WEAKENS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 112.6W ABOUT 575 MI...920 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.6 WEST. AMANDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND AMANDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Hurricane AMANDA Forecast Advisory Number 21

2014-05-27 22:35:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE MAY 27 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 272034 TCMEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 2100 UTC TUE MAY 27 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 112.6W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 112.6W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 112.5W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.6N 112.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.4N 112.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 17.3N 111.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.0N 110.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.0N 111.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 17.5N 111.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 17.0N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 112.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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