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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2021-09-03 10:32:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 030831 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)
2021-09-03 10:31:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARRY SLOWLY STRENGTHENING... ...RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF FROM LARRY'S SWELLS INCREASES FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SUNDAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 3 the center of Larry was located near 14.6, -38.9 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 11
2021-09-03 10:31:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 03 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 030831 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 AM AST Fri Sep 03 2021 ...LARRY SLOWLY STRENGTHENING... ...RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF FROM LARRY'S SWELLS INCREASES FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 38.9W ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1530 MI...2460 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 38.9 West. Larry is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h) and this motion is expected during the next few days. A turn to the northwest is forecast by early next week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Larry could become a major hurricane by tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 11
2021-09-03 10:31:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 030830 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 38.9W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 100SE 40SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 38.9W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 38.2W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.2N 41.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.2N 43.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.3N 46.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.6N 48.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.8N 50.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.1N 52.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 23.8N 55.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 27.1N 58.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 38.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Larry Graphics
2021-09-03 04:35:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2021 02:35:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2021 03:22:46 GMT
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