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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2021-09-03 22:45:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 032045 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 13
2021-09-03 22:41:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 381 WTNT22 KNHC 032041 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 42.0W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 100SE 70SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 180SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 42.0W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 41.5W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.8N 44.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 70SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.9N 46.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.1N 48.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.4N 50.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 45SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.7N 52.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.9N 54.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 24.7N 57.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 28.7N 60.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 42.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Hurricane Larry Graphics
2021-09-03 16:49:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2021 14:49:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2021 14:49:49 GMT
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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2021-09-03 16:48:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 583 FONT12 KNHC 031448 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 1500 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)
2021-09-03 16:48:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARRY APPEARS POISED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER... ...RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF FROM LARRY'S SWELLS INCREASES FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES BY SUNDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 3 the center of Larry was located near 14.8, -40.7 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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