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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 16
2021-09-04 16:47:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 04 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 041447 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 04 2021 ...LARRY LARGER AND A LITTLE STRONGER... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG MANY WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 45.8W ABOUT 1055 MI...1700 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1600 MI...2570 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 45.8 West. Larry is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A gradually slower west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and additional strengthening is forecast over the next day or two. Larry is expected to remain at major hurricane strength through the early part of next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, and will continue to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda Monday and Tuesday. Significant swells will likely reach the eastern United States coastline after Labor Day. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 16
2021-09-04 16:46:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 04 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 041446 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 1500 UTC SAT SEP 04 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 45.8W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT.......140NE 120SE 70SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 210SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 45.8W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 45.2W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.7N 47.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.1N 49.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.3N 51.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 55NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.5N 53.2W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 55SE 45SW 55NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.6N 54.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.8N 56.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 27.0N 59.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 31.6N 62.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 45.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)
2021-09-04 10:31:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARRY FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL DAYS... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG MANY WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES NEXT WEEK... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 4 the center of Larry was located near 16.3, -44.6 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2021-09-04 10:31:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 04 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 040831 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC SAT SEP 04 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 15
2021-09-04 10:30:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 04 2021 887 WTNT22 KNHC 040830 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC SAT SEP 04 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 44.6W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 110SE 60SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 210SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 44.6W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 44.0W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.2N 46.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.4N 48.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.7N 50.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.0N 52.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.0N 54.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.3N 56.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 26.1N 59.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 30.6N 62.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 44.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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