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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 8
2021-09-02 16:41:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 02 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 021441 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 02 2021 ...LARRY IS LARGER AND A BIT STRONGER... ...STEADY TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION LIKELY IN THE COMING DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 34.2W ABOUT 660 MI...1065 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 34.2 West. Larry is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A gradual turn towards the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed are expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Larry is expected to become a a major hurricane by Friday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center. Recent satellite wind data indicates that the tropical-storm-force wind radii are expanding and now extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 8
2021-09-02 16:39:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 02 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 021439 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 1500 UTC THU SEP 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 34.2W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 140SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 135SE 90SW 135NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 34.2W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 33.4W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.8N 36.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 160SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.4N 39.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.3N 42.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.5N 45.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.9N 47.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.2N 49.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 21.8N 53.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 24.6N 56.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 34.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Hurricane Larry Graphics
2021-09-02 10:48:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 02 Sep 2021 08:48:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 02 Sep 2021 08:48:45 GMT
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-09-02 10:46:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 02 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 020846 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 AM AST Thu Sep 02 2021 Larry's cloud pattern has gradually become better organized, with deep convection increasing in coverage and intensity near the center and a banding-type eye trying to form. Upper-level outflow is most prominent over the western and northern portions of the circulation. A well-defined low-level eye was apparent on an AMSR-2 image from a few hours ago. Dvorak final T- and Current Intensity-numbers from both TAFB and SAB are 4.0/4.0, corresponding to an intensity of 65 kt. Based on these estimates, Larry is upgraded to a hurricane, the fifth of the 2021 Atlantic season. The hurricane is moving just slightly north of west, or 280/17 kt. There are no important changes to the track forecast scenario from the previous advisory. Larry is likely to move along the southern and southwestern periphery of a strong deep-layer subtropical high pressure area over the east-central Atlantic during the next few days. This should result in a gradual turn toward the west-northwest during the next 48-72 hours. A turn toward the northwest is likely in 4-5 days as the system approaches a weakness in the ridge. The track models are fairly well clustered on this future direction of motion with some differences in forward speed. The official track forecast is quite similar to the previous one and is also very close to the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCA. Larry is expected to remain in an environment conducive for strengthening over the next few days, with marginally warm SSTs, low vertical shear, and surrounded by broad-scale anticyclonic upper-level flow. Therefore, strengthening is likely, and the official forecast calls for Larry to become a major hurricane in 48 hours or so. Some fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacements are possible around and after that time. Late in the forecast period, slightly drier air in the environment could limit further intensification. The official intensity forecast is close to the latest NOAA corrected consensus, HCCA, guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 13.0N 32.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 13.4N 34.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 14.0N 37.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 14.8N 40.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 15.8N 43.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 16.9N 46.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 18.3N 48.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 20.9N 52.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 23.8N 55.4W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)
2021-09-02 10:43:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARRY BECOMES A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 2 the center of Larry was located near 13.0, -32.3 with movement W at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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