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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 19
2021-09-05 10:45:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 05 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 050845 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC SUN SEP 05 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 49.0W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB EYE DIAMETER 40 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT.......140NE 130SE 70SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 49.0W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 48.5W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.9N 50.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.2N 52.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.4N 53.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N 55.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.0N 56.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 26.5N 57.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 30.4N 60.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 36.5N 61.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 49.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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Hurricane Larry Graphics
2021-09-05 04:36:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 05 Sep 2021 02:36:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 05 Sep 2021 03:22:49 GMT
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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2021-09-05 04:34:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 05 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 050234 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0300 UTC SUN SEP 05 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 22(33) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)
2021-09-05 04:33:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG MANY WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES NEXT WEEK DUE TO LARRY'S LARGE SWELLS... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 4 the center of Larry was located near 18.0, -48.0 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 18
2021-09-05 04:32:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 05 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 050232 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0300 UTC SUN SEP 05 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 48.0W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB EYE DIAMETER 40 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT.......140NE 130SE 70SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 48.0W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 47.5W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.1N 49.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.5N 51.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.7N 53.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.0N 54.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.2N 56.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.8N 57.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 29.4N 60.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 35.1N 61.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 48.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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