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Hurricane Larry Graphics
2021-09-04 04:38:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 04 Sep 2021 02:38:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 04 Sep 2021 03:22:50 GMT
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-09-04 04:37:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 03 2021 078 WTNT42 KNHC 040237 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 03 2021 Larry has had a distinct but slightly ragged 15 n mi wide eye during the past few hours, while convective cloud tops within the eyewall have been gradually cooling. Intensity estimates have responded, somewhat significantly, to the improved structure, and TAFB and SAB Dvorak fixes at 0000 UTC were T5.5/102 kt and T5.0/90 kt, respectively. In addition, objective UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates are near 105 kt. Larry has become a major hurricane, the third of the Atlantic season, with estimated 100-kt sustained winds. The hurricane is located due south of a mid-tropospheric high centered over the central Atlantic, and continues to move toward the west-northwest (285/14 kt). Larry is generally expected to move around the southwestern periphery of the high, turning northwestward at a slower speed by Sunday and then north-northwestward by Wednesday as a deep-layer trough moves eastward across the eastern United States. There is fairly high confidence in the track forecast, with model guidance showing a below- to near-normal amount of spread through day 5. The new NHC track forecast is right along the forecast from the previous advisory through day 3, and then nudged slightly westward on days 4 and 5. It should be noted that a few of the consensus aids, including HCCA, are still a little bit west of the official forecast at day 5, which might portend additional westward nudges in future advisories. By strict definition, Larry hasn't quite rapidly intensified since this time yesterday, but it has still strengthened quickly over waters that are considered only marginally warm (26-27 degrees Celsius). For the next couple of days, low shear, higher oceanic heat content, and a more unstable environment should favor additional intensification. However, there are still indications that Larry could run into an environment of higher shear and less upper-level divergence in 2-3 days as it approaches a mid-/upper-level trough currently located north and northeast of the Leeward Islands. In addition, internal processes within the hurricane's core itself, such as eyewall replacement cycles, could affect the intensity. In light of all these factors, the NHC intensity forecast relies on persistence to show additional strengthening during the next 36 hours, and then holds Larry steady through 60 hours at an intensity that is near the upper end of the guidance. Very gradual weakening is anticipated on days 3 through 5 while Larry heads in the direction of higher latitudes, yet the hurricane is forecast to remain at major hurricane intensity for the entire 5-day forecast period. Significant ocean swells generated by Larry's growing wind field are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, and then spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents and high surf conditions. Large swells are also likely to spread to the east coast of the United States by midweek. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 15.5N 43.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 16.2N 45.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 17.4N 47.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 18.7N 49.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 20.0N 51.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 21.2N 53.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 22.4N 55.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 25.4N 58.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 29.5N 61.5W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2021-09-04 04:36:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 04 2021 917 FONT12 KNHC 040236 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0300 UTC SAT SEP 04 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)
2021-09-04 04:36:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARRY LUNGES TO MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG MANY WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES NEXT WEEK... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 3 the center of Larry was located near 15.5, -43.3 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 14
2021-09-04 04:36:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 03 2021 885 WTNT32 KNHC 040236 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 03 2021 ...LARRY LUNGES TO MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG MANY WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 43.3W ABOUT 1230 MI...1980 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 43.3 West. Larry is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through late Saturday. A motion toward the northwest at a slower forward speed is forecast to begin Sunday morning and continue through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast over the next day or two, and Larry is expected to remain at major hurricane strength through the early part of next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, and will continue to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda Monday and Tuesday. Significant swells will likely reach the eastern United States coastline after Labor Day. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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