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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-06-28 10:35:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 280835 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 300 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Enrique's cloud pattern has changed little in organization over the past several hours. An eye is no longer apparent in geostationary satellite images, but the central dense overcast is still characterized by fairly cold cloud tops. The current intensity for this advisory is held at 80 kt, which is close to the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. A slow weakening trend is expected to begin soon, as the cyclone starts to move into a little less conducive environment. Faster weakening is likely to commence in 24 to 48 hours due to decreasing oceanic heat content, and entrainment of a more stable air mass. The official intensity forecast is a blend of the corrected and simple consensus model guidance and is similar to the previous NHC prediction. Latest center fixes show that the hurricane's heading is beginning to lean a little to the left and the initial motion is now north-northwestward, or 340/5 kt. A weak ridge that is forecast to develop over northwestern mainland Mexico should cause the cyclone to turn toward the northwest during the next day or two. This general motion should continue through 48-72 hours, however the steering currents are likely to remain rather weak so Enrique is expected to move quite slowly for the next few days. The official track forecast is close to the latest corrected consensus predictions, HCCA and the FSU Superensemble. On the forecast track, Enrique is expected to pass near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula in 2-3 days. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be required for a portion of that area later today. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of western Mexico during the next couple of days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. The core of Enrique will continue to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico this morning and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of that area. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across the remainder of southwestern Mexico within the warning areas through today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area today. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 20.0N 106.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 20.6N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 21.2N 107.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 21.9N 107.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 22.7N 108.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 30/1800Z 23.6N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/0600Z 24.5N 110.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 02/0600Z 25.5N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Enrique Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2021-06-28 10:35:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 280835 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 0900 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 3 6( 9) 8(17) 9(26) 5(31) X(31) X(31) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 3 6( 9) 9(18) 11(29) 6(35) X(35) X(35) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 81 8(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) ISLAS MARIAS 50 12 16(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) ISLAS MARIAS 64 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MAZATLAN 34 4 11(15) 8(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) SAN BLAS 34 6 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) P VALLARTA 34 19 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 4 4( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 110W 34 4 5( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Hurricane Enrique (EP5/EP052021)
2021-06-28 10:34:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ENRIQUE STILL CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE WARNING AREAS... As of 3:00 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 the center of Enrique was located near 20.0, -106.3 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Enrique Public Advisory Number 13
2021-06-28 10:34:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 280834 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Enrique Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 300 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 ...ENRIQUE STILL CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE WARNING AREAS... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 106.3W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Playa Perula Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula * Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in southern portions of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Enrique. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 106.3 West. Enrique is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, and that general motion should continue thereafter for the next couple of days. On the forecast track the core of the hurricane, along with the strongest winds, are expected to continue to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico this morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected this morning. Enrique is forecast to begin weakening later today, and continue to weaken through early this week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the Hurricane Warning area this morning. Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area through today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area today. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, The eastern outer bands of Enrique are expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal sections of Jalisco and Nayarit in western Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 13
2021-06-28 10:34:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 280834 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 0900 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA * CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA MITA TO SAN BLAS MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ENRIQUE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 106.3W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 165SE 150SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 106.3W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 106.2W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.6N 106.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.2N 107.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.9N 107.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.7N 108.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.6N 109.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.5N 110.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 25.5N 112.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 106.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 28/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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