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Summary for Hurricane Enrique (EP5/EP052021)
2021-06-28 01:49:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CORE OF ENRIQUE LURKING JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECTING THE COAST... As of 7:00 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 the center of Enrique was located near 19.4, -105.8 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Enrique Public Advisory Number 11A
2021-06-28 01:49:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021 559 WTPZ35 KNHC 272349 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 700 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021 ...CORE OF ENRIQUE LURKING JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECTING THE COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 105.8W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Playa Perula Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula * Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in southern portions of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Enrique. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 105.8 West. Enrique is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and then northwest is expected to begin tonight. That general motion should continue thereafter for a few days. On the forecast track, the core of the hurricane, along with the strongest winds, are expected to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight. Enrique is then forecast to begin weakening on Monday and continue to weaken through early this week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). A wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) was recently reported at Manzanillo, Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the Hurricane Warning area tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are occuring in portions of the tropical storm warning area and will continue to spread northwestward through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area tonight and Monday. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, the eastern outer bands of Enrique are expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal sections of Jalisco, Michoacan, and northern Guerrero in southwest Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Hurricane Enrique (EP5/EP052021)
2021-06-27 23:02:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CORE OF ENRIQUE JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 the center of Enrique was located near 19.0, -105.7 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Enrique Public Advisory Number 11
2021-06-27 23:02:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021 333 WTPZ35 KNHC 272101 CCA TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Enrique Advisory Number 11...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021 Corrected headline ...CORE OF ENRIQUE JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 105.7W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Playa Perula Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 105.7 West. Enrique is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and then northwest is expected to begin tonight. That general motion should continue thereafter for a few days. On the forecast track, the core of the hurricane, along with the strongest winds, are expected to pass near or just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico through tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Enrique is then forecast to begin weakening on Monday and continue to weaken through early this week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the Hurricane Warning area tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are occuring in portions of the warning area and will continue to spread northwestward within the warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area tonight and Monday. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, the eastern outer bands of Enrique are expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal sections of Jalisco, Michoacan, and northern Guerrero in southwest Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Brown
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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-06-27 22:57:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 272057 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021 Enrique has been trying to form an eye in visible satellite imagery since early this morning. Each time this has occurred, the feature has filled in shortly thereafter. The overall appearance and structure of the hurricane has changed little today, and the latest Dvorak T-number from TAFB indicates that the estimated intensity remains 80 kt for this advisory. A pair of earlier ASCAT overpasses helped to confirm the size of the wind field of Enrique, and showed that tropical storm conditions were occurring within the warned area of the coast of Mexico. The data also revealed that the strongest core of winds of 50 kt or greater were about 50 n mi offshore. Enrique move a little east of north for several hours today. However, over the past couple of hours it appears that the eastward component of motion has ceased, and the initial motion is now 360/07 kt. Embedded in generally weak steering flow, Enrique is currently moving toward a weakening mid-level trough over northwestern Mexico. A small ridge should build just to the northeast of the cyclone tonight, forcing it to turn north-northwest then northwest. This northwestward motion should then continue until the system dissipates by the middle of the week. Based on the forecast track and wind radii, the core of strongest winds associated with Enrique are forecast to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico through tonight and any deviation to the right could bring the strongest winds to the coast by late tonight. As a result, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for a small portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico. In about 72 h, the center of the system is forecast to be near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Overall, the environment surrounding Enrique is still favorable for strengthening in the near term, and although not shown in the official forecast, some slight strengthening could still occur through tonight. On Monday, the hurricane is forecast to begin moving over waters of decreasing oceanic heat content. Due to the fairly slow motion of the cyclone over these waters, upwelling should bring cooler waters to the surface. This would induce a gradual weakening trend beginning sometime tomorrow. By Tuesday, the cyclone is expected to begin moving over much cooler waters and into a drier and stable atmospheric environment, which will hasten the pace of weakening. Most of the guidance shows Enrique becoming a remnant low in a few days. There is some uncertainty as to whether or not this transition will occur before the system reaches the southern Baja California peninsula. Therefore it is possible that a Tropical Storm Watch could be required for a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula by tomorrow. After Enrique does finally become a remnant low, it should dissipate shortly thereafter. The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the SHIPS/LGEM models through 36 h and the corrected consensus HCCA beyond 36 h. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. The core of Enrique is forecast to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight and the government of Mexico as issued a Hurricane Warning for a portion of that area. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across the remainder of southwestern Mexico within the warning areas through early Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 19.0N 105.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 19.8N 106.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 20.5N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 21.1N 107.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 21.8N 107.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 30/0600Z 22.6N 108.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 23.6N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 25.5N 112.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Brown
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