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Summary for Hurricane Enrique (EP5/EP052021)
2021-06-27 07:50:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CORE OF HURRICANE ENRIQUE FORECAST TO PASS NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 1:00 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 the center of Enrique was located near 17.5, -106.0 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane Enrique Public Advisory Number 8A
2021-06-27 07:50:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 270550 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 100 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021 ...CORE OF HURRICANE ENRIQUE FORECAST TO PASS NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 106.0W ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 106.0 West. Enrique is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to the north-northwest is expected later this morning, with the storm maintaining a northwest to north-northwest heading during next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Enrique is expected to pass near or just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico late today through Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today, but Enrique is expected to begin to gradually weaken within the next couple of days as it moves over cooler waters. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in portions of the warning area and will continue to spread northwestward within the warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible by tonight in the Hurricane Watch area. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area today and Monday. RAINFALL: Through Monday, Enrique is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal sections of Michoacan and Jalisco in southwest Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Enrique Graphics
2021-06-27 07:50:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 27 Jun 2021 05:50:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 27 Jun 2021 03:22:32 GMT
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Hurricane Enrique Graphics
2021-06-27 04:50:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 27 Jun 2021 02:50:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 27 Jun 2021 03:22:32 GMT
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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-06-27 04:49:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 270249 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 After appearing a bit ragged this afternoon, convective banding has increased in the eastern semicircle and near the center of Enrique this evening. A couple of microwave overpasses since the previous advisory have shown a ragged low- to mid-level eye feature. These observations suggest that some of the dry air noted earlier has mixed out. Although objective satellite intensity estimates have decreased, subjective Dvorak T-numbers from both SAB and TAFB remain T4.5 (77 kt) so the initial wind speed is held at 75 kt. Although Enrique has not strengthened as much as previously forecast, environmental conditions appear conducive for some slight intensification in the short term. After that time, moderate easterly shear and gradually decreasing ocean heat content along the track of the storm is likely to result in gradual weakening with Enrique forecast to weaken below hurricane strength in two to three days. A faster rate of weakening is expected later in the forecast period as SSTs fall below 26C and the cyclone entrains a drier and more stable air mass near the Baja California peninsula. This is expected to result in Enrique becoming a remnant low by day 5. Recent microwave data indicated that the center of Enrique is located a little south of the earlier estimates, which required a slight adjustment to the 0000 UTC initial position. Although the latest advisory position shows little motion since the 2100 UTC advisory, the longer-term motion appears to be 325/4 kt. The ridge to the north of the hurricane is predicted to continue weakening over the next day or so as a trough digs southward into the southwest United States. As a result, Enrique is forecast to turn north-northwestward tonight and continue on that heading through 36 hours. After that time, the ridge is expected to re-build to the northeast of the storm, and Enrique is forecast to bend back toward the northwest. The latest official forecast is fairly similar to the previous advisory, but is slightly closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico during the 24- to 36-hour time period. The new forecast is in best agreement with the GFEX model (consensus of the GFS and ECMWF), but is not nearly as far east as the GFS and HWRF, which continue to bring the storm close to or onshore the coast of southwestern Mexico. Given the slight shift in the forecast track closer to southwestern Mexico, any deviation to the right of the track or expansion of the hurricane-force wind field could bring those winds closer to the coast. Therefore, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and has also extended the Tropical Storm Warning area farther north. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across portions of southwestern Mexico through early Monday. Although the core of Enrique is still forecast to remain just offshore, any deviation of the storm to the right of the forecast track or expansion of the wind field could bring even stronger winds onshore a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Therefore, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for a portion of that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 17.3N 105.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 18.0N 106.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 19.1N 106.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 20.0N 106.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 20.8N 107.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 21.3N 108.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 21.9N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 23.3N 110.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 24.3N 111.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown/Berg
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