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Hurricane Enrique Graphics
2021-06-27 10:45:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 27 Jun 2021 08:45:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 27 Jun 2021 09:22:31 GMT
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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-06-27 10:41:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021 113 WTPZ45 KNHC 270841 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 300 AM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021 The central dense overcast of the hurricane has not expanded much over the past several hours, and the eye is not apparent on geostationary satellite images. However, Enrique has well-defined convective banding features over most of its circulation. Taking a blend of the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB gives a current intensity estimate of 80 kt. A little more strengthening could occur today, as reflected in the official forecast. In 24 to 48 hours, cooler sea surface temperatures and decreasing oceanic heat content should cause a weakening trend to commence. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone should be entraining a drier and more stable air mass near the southern Baja California peninsula, which should also contribute to the weakening process. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus and FSU Superensemble predictions. Enrique has moved quite slowly overnight and the initial motion estimate is north-northwestward, or 330/3 kt. Steering currents are expected to remain rather weak over the next few days. The system is expected to move on a north-northwestward to northwestward heading, in the general direction of a weak mid-level trough over extreme northwestern Mexico, for the next 2-3 days. Later in the forecast period, the weakening cyclone's track should gradually bend to the left under the influence of the lower-tropospheric environmental flow. The official track forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions, and not too different from the previous NHC track. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across portions of southwestern Mexico through early Monday. Although the core of Enrique is still forecast to remain just offshore, any deviation to the right of the forecast track or expansion of the wind field could bring even stronger winds onshore over a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Therefore, a Hurricane Watch is in effect for a portion of that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 17.6N 106.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 18.5N 106.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 19.4N 106.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 20.1N 107.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 20.7N 107.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 29/1800Z 21.3N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 22.1N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 23.5N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 02/0600Z 24.7N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Hurricane Enrique (EP5/EP052021)
2021-06-27 10:37:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ENRIQUE A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 3:00 AM MDT Sun Jun 27 the center of Enrique was located near 17.6, -106.0 with movement NNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Enrique Public Advisory Number 9
2021-06-27 10:37:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 270837 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Enrique Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 300 AM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021 ...ENRIQUE A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 106.0W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 106.0 West. Enrique is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A north-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Enrique is expected to pass near or just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico late today through Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional slight strengthening is possible today, but Enrique is expected to begin to gradually weaken within the next couple of days as it moves over cooler waters. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in portions of the warning area and will continue to spread northwestward within the warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible by tonight in the Hurricane Watch area. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area today and Monday. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, The eastern outer bands of Enrique are expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal sections of Jalisco, Michoacan, and northern Guerrero in southwest Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Enrique Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2021-06-27 10:37:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 27 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 270837 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 0900 UTC SUN JUN 27 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 10(19) 3(22) X(22) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 10(19) 2(21) 1(22) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 3 24(27) 22(49) 9(58) 1(59) 1(60) X(60) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 5(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) SAN BLAS 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) P VALLARTA 34 3 14(17) 5(22) X(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) 15N 105W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 37 5(42) 1(43) X(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) MANZANILLO 34 41 5(46) 2(48) 1(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) MANZANILLO 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 2 3( 5) 7(12) 9(21) 5(26) X(26) X(26) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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