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Hurricane Epsilon Graphics
2020-10-22 10:51:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Oct 2020 08:51:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Oct 2020 08:51:57 GMT
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-10-22 10:48:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 220848 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 Epsilon's eye has lost some definition and become cloud filled in conventional satellite imagery during the past few hours, and an 0604 UTC AMSR2 microwave image showed that the eyewall has been eroded on the west side. Given the degradation of the cloud pattern and lowering Dvorak estimates, Epsilon's initial intensity is being set, likely generously, at 95 kt. A recent UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate suggests that the intensity could be 10-15 kt lower than that, but I'd rather we see the aircraft reconnaissance data in a few hours before reducing it any further. Epsilon's trochoidal wobbles have continued overnight, but a longer-term 12-hour motion suggests that the hurricane has turned toward the northwest (320/6 kt). A mid-tropospheric high over the central Atlantic will be Epsilon's main driver, causing the hurricane to turn toward the north-northwest later today and then toward the north tonight. Shorter-term deviations around this general trajectory will be possible if the trochoidal oscillations continue through the day. Epsilon is forecast to turn toward the northeast and accelerate on Saturday when it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, taking it past southeastern Newfoundland and into the north Atlantic early next week. The new NHC track forecast is down the middle of the tightly clustered model guidance, and close to the TVCN multi-model consensus. However, because of the recent wobbles, this new forecast lies about 40 n mi to the east of the previous forecast during the first 36 hours. Epsilon's forecast track takes it over a rather homogeneous field of sea surface temperatures between 25-26 degrees Celsius for the next 48-60 hours as vertical shear increases somewhat. Gradual weakening is anticipated during that period, but a more sudden decrease in ocean temperatures after 60 hours should induce quicker weakening thereafter. Hurricane and global models both agree on this scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast is very close to the IVCN consensus and the HFIP Corrected Consensus. Epsilon is expected to merge with a frontal zone and become extratropical by day 4. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on Bermuda through this evening, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda. 2. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents are expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 30.6N 60.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 31.6N 61.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 33.0N 61.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 34.7N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 36.6N 61.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 38.7N 59.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 41.6N 54.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 50.0N 36.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 27/0600Z 60.0N 22.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Hurricane Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)
2020-10-22 10:48:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Oct 22 the center of Epsilon was located near 30.6, -60.9 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
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Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 14
2020-10-22 10:48:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 675 WTNT32 KNHC 220848 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 60.9W ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 60.9 West. Epsilon has been wobbling around since last evening, but its longer-term motion is toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected later today, followed by a northward motion tonight through Friday night, and an acceleration toward the northeast on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach to, but well to the east of, Bermuda later this evening. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on Bermuda through this evening. SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2020-10-22 10:48:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 22 2020 647 FONT12 KNHC 220848 PWSAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0900 UTC THU OCT 22 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) X(23) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BERMUDA 34 33 11(44) 3(47) 1(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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