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Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2020-09-19 10:49:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 190849 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 28(47) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 31(54) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 27(54) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 37(39) 10(49) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 5(20) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) 18(61) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 9(24) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 46(60) 6(66) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 5(32) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 41(46) 3(49) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 1(22) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 1(23) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 3(22) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BERMUDA 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 20(36) 6(42) X(42) X(42) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Teddy Graphics
2020-09-19 07:35:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 05:35:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 03:23:26 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-19 07:35:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MAJOR HURRICANE TEDDY CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT... As of 2:00 AM AST Sat Sep 19 the center of Teddy was located near 24.4, -57.7 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 27A
2020-09-19 07:35:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 190535 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 27A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 200 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 ...MAJOR HURRICANE TEDDY CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 57.7W ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 57.7 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the day or so, followed by a turn toward the north late Sunday. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda on Sunday and move near or east of the island late Sunday and early Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely through Saturday, with a weakening trend forecast to begin on Sunday. Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin to affect Bermuda and the nearby waters by Sunday afternoon. These conditions may linger throughout most of the day Monday. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. Swells from Teddy will begin affecting most of the east coast of the United States later today and will reach Atlantic Canada by early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Teddy Graphics
2020-09-19 05:23:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 03:23:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 03:23:26 GMT
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