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Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-19 16:50:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE TEDDY EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA BY SUNDAY EVENING... ...LARGE SWELLS THAT CAN CAUSE RIP CURRENTS WILL AFFECT MOST WESTERN ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 19 the center of Teddy was located near 26.0, -59.0 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 29
2020-09-19 16:50:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 191450 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 59.0W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......130NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 140SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 300SE 390SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 59.0W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 58.6W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.3N 60.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 28.8N 61.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 30.4N 62.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 150SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 33.1N 61.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...270NE 220SE 220SW 260NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.1N 61.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. 34 KT...320NE 280SE 220SW 320NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 40.8N 61.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. 34 KT...350NE 290SE 250SW 280NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 47.0N 59.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 52.9N 51.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 59.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 29
2020-09-19 16:50:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 191450 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 ...HURRICANE TEDDY EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA BY SUNDAY EVENING... ...LARGE SWELLS THAT CAN CAUSE RIP CURRENTS WILL AFFECT MOST WESTERN ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.0N 59.0W ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 59.0 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north or north-northeast is expected on Sunday, followed by a northward motion into early next week. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda on Sunday and the center will pass just east of the island late Sunday and early Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slow weakening is expected over the next couple of days. A more pronounced decrease in Teddy's maximum winds is forecast to begin early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The wind field of the hurricane is forecast to increase substantially starting on Sunday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda beginning Sunday afternoon or evening and could linger through most of the day Monday. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. Swells from Teddy should reach Atlantic Canada by early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2020-09-19 16:50:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 191450 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 11(37) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 12(44) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 9(45) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 5(18) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 39(45) 2(47) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 44(52) 4(56) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 2(22) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 34(64) 1(65) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 22(29) 1(30) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 34(50) X(50) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 1(23) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) X(23) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 1(21) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X 5( 5) 20(25) 14(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Teddy Graphics
2020-09-19 13:42:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 11:42:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 09:25:41 GMT
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