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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 34
2020-09-15 10:31:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 671 WTNT42 KNHC 150831 TCDAT2 Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 Paulette has generally changed little overnight. The hurricane still has a central dense overcast feature with an eye occasionally evident in satellite images. Convective banding remains well organized, especially to the north of the center. The satellite intensity estimates range from 77 to 102 kt and based on that data, the initial intensity is again held at 90 kt. The hurricane could strengthen slightly in the short term due to a combination of baroclinic influences from an approaching trough and relatively warm water beneath the cyclone. However, a steady weakening trend should commence on Wednesday when Paulette moves over much cooler waters and into an environment of strong wind shear. These factors should ultimately lead to extratropical transition, which is forecast to be complete by day 3. However, some of the guidance suggests that this could occur up to a day sooner than that. The NHC intensity forecast is near a blend of the HCCA, IVCN, and GFS models. Paulette continues to pick up speed, and the latest initial motion estimate is northeastward at 17 kt. The hurricane is expected to accelerate northeastward even more during the next couple of days as it becomes more embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. After a few days, however, Paulette will likely turn southeastward and then southward as it moves in the flow on the west side of a cut off deep-layer low. There are some differences in the models on how sharply Paulette turns southward, but they generally agree on the overall scenario. The NHC track forecast lies roughly between the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 37.0N 60.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 38.9N 56.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 41.3N 50.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 43.7N 44.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 45.4N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 46.0N 35.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 44.9N 34.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/0600Z 41.6N 33.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 20/0600Z 38.7N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34
2020-09-15 10:30:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 350 FONT12 KNHC 150830 PWSAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Hurricane Paulette (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-15 10:30:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PAULETTE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Sep 15 the center of Paulette was located near 37.0, -60.5 with movement NE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 34
2020-09-15 10:30:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 150830 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 ...PAULETTE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.0N 60.5W ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 37.0 North, longitude 60.5 West. Paulette is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). A faster motion toward the northeast or east-northeast is expected during the next couple of days. Paulette is then forecast to slow down and turn southeastward by late Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible through tonight, but rapid weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect portions of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the east coast of the United States through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 34
2020-09-15 10:30:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 150830 TCMAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 60.5W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT.......150NE 200SE 130SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 270SE 300SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 60.5W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 61.7W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 38.9N 56.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 41.3N 50.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 170SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 43.7N 44.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 170SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 45.4N 39.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 46.0N 35.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 170SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 44.9N 34.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 140SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 41.6N 33.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 38.7N 32.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.0N 60.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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