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Summary for Hurricane Sally (AT4/AL192020)
2020-09-15 04:44:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OUTER RAIN BANDS MOVING ONSHORE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... As of 10:00 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 the center of Sally was located near 28.9, -87.6 with movement WNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane Sally Public Advisory Number 15
2020-09-15 04:44:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 150244 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Sally Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...OUTER RAIN BANDS MOVING ONSHORE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.9N 87.6W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning west of Grand Isle to Morgan City, Louisiana, has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Navarre Florida * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida * West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 87.6 West. Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Tuesday morning. A northward turn is likely by Tuesday afternoon, and a slow north-northeastward to northeastward motion is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move near the coast of southeastern Louisiana tonight and Tuesday, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area Tuesday night or Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast early Tuesday and Sally is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A buoy south of Dauphin Island, Alabama, recently reported sustained winds of 61 mph (98 km/h) and a wind gust of 69 mph (111 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Dauphin Island including Lake Borgne...6-9 ft Ocean Springs, MS to Dauphin Island, AL including Mobile Bay...6-9 ft Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border...4-7 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...2-4 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...1-2 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area later tonight and Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions expected to begin within the warning area during the next few hours. RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it approaches land, producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeastern Mississippi through the middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers. Sally is forecast to turn inland early Wednesday and track across the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of eastern Mississippi, central Alabama, northern Georgia, southeastern Tennessee, and the western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers. Outer bands of Sally could produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across the Florida peninsula through tonight. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible late tonight through early Tuesday in coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle and Alabama. The threat for tornadoes should increase and slowly spread inland during the day on Tuesday. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Sally Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-09-15 04:44:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 150244 TCMAT4 HURRICANE SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA...HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE * MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE NAVARRE FLORIDA * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF OF NAVARRE FLORIDA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA * WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 87.6W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 30SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 270SE 150SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 87.6W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 87.5W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 29.1N 88.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 29.6N 88.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.4N 88.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.3N 87.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.0N 86.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 32.7N 84.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 33.1N 82.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 87.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 15/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Paulette Graphics
2020-09-15 04:37:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Sep 2020 02:37:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Sep 2020 02:37:31 GMT
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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 33
2020-09-15 04:35:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 150235 TCDAT2 Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 Paulette's cloud pattern has degraded during the past few hours, and recent microwave imagery suggests that the eyewall of the hurricane was at least for a time open to the south. A larger mostly closed ring of convection was also present, indicating that Paulette may be going through an eyewall replacement cycle. Satellite-based current intensity estimates range from 65 to 102 kt, but have generally decreased since the last advisory. The intensity estimate remains 90 kt at this time, but there is a high degree of uncertainty in this assessment. Assuming Paulette can maintain a well-defined inner core, either through the completion of an eyewall replacement cycle or redevelopment of convection in the southern eyewall, it should have an opportunity to strengthen during the next 24 h. The intensity guidance is not quite as bullish anymore, so the intensity forecast has been lowered slightly, but it is still above the intensity consensus through 36 h. Paulette could begin to lose tropical characteristics around that time and rapid weakening is expected as a result. The NHC forecast conservatively shows Paulette becoming fully post-tropical in 72 h, but there are indications from the GFS simulated satellite imagery that it could complete its transition sooner. Paulette has turned northeastward and is accelerating, as predicted, with an initial motion estimate of 35/15 kt. The system will likely race generally east-northeastward for the next few days. A slower motion and eventual turn southeastward or even southward is expected near the end of the week when the cyclone encounters a large cut-off low over the eastern Atlantic, however it should be post-tropical by that time. The track guidance remains in excellent overall agreement overall, and NHC forecast is based heavily on TVCN and HCCA. The wind radii analysis and forecast were updated based on data from an ASCAT-A overpass at 0050 UTC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 35.7N 62.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 37.4N 59.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 39.8N 54.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 42.3N 48.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 44.6N 41.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 46.0N 37.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 45.8N 35.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/0000Z 43.0N 33.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 20/0000Z 39.0N 32.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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