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Summary for Hurricane Paulette (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-14 22:40:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PAULETTE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM BERMUDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR BERMUDA... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 14 the center of Paulette was located near 34.5, -63.8 with movement NNE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 32
2020-09-14 22:40:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 142040 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 ...PAULETTE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM BERMUDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.5N 63.8W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM NNE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 34.5 North, longitude 63.8 West. Paulette is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected later tonight followed by a turn toward the east-northeast and an increase in forward speed Tuesday afternonn through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely through Tuesday night as Paulette accelerates northeastward to east-northeastward. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gusty winds on Bermuda should persist into the evening hours. STORM SURGE: Storm surge and associated coastal flooding and rough surf conditions on Bermuda should begin to subside this evening. RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through this evening, with rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches expected. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 32
2020-09-14 22:39:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 142039 TCMAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 63.8W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......170NE 170SE 110SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 63.8W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 64.4W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 36.1N 61.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 38.4N 57.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 190SE 160SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 40.8N 51.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 43.3N 44.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 45.4N 39.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 170SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 46.6N 35.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 180SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 44.3N 32.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 39.1N 31.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.5N 63.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricane Sally Public Advisory Number 13A
2020-09-14 19:51:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 141751 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 100 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...SALLY MEANDERING OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.7N 87.1W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida Border to Indian Pass Florida * Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located near by NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 87.1 West. Sally has been meandering over the north-central Gulf of Mexico today, but a west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) should resume later today. A decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the northwest is forecast tonight and a northward turn is expected sometime on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico today, approach southeastern Louisiana tonight, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area on Tuesday or Tuesday night. Afterward, Sally is expected to move slowly north-northeastward near the northern Gulf Coast through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Sally is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Ocean Springs, MS to Dauphin Island, AL...6-9 ft Mobile Bay...5-8 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border...4-6 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka, FL including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...1-2 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area today, and are expected to begin within the warning area later today. RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it approaches land, producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeast Louisiana through the middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers. Sally is forecast move farther inland early Wednesday and track into the Southeast with rainfall of 6 to 12 inches possible across portions of inland southeast Mississippi and Alabama. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers. Further heavy rain is then anticipated across portions of eastern Tennessee, northern Georgia and western Carolinas Thursday into Friday. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is possible across this region. Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across the Florida peninsula today. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this afternoon through Tuesday over coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle, Mississippi, Alabama, and extreme southeastern Louisiana. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect areas from the west coast of the Florida peninsula westward through the coast of southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Paulette Graphics
2020-09-14 19:45:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 17:45:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 15:25:22 GMT
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