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Hurricane Sally Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2020-09-14 22:44:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 142044 PWSAT4 HURRICANE SALLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SALLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ATLANTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) GAINESVILLE FL 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 3 3( 6) 5(11) 5(16) 3(19) 1(20) X(20) ST MARKS FL 34 3 3( 6) 4(10) 4(14) 4(18) 1(19) X(19) APALACHICOLA 34 5 8(13) 9(22) 6(28) 1(29) 1(30) X(30) APALACHICOLA 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 6 7(13) 6(19) 4(23) 2(25) 1(26) X(26) GFMX 290N 850W 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 13 11(24) 17(41) 5(46) 1(47) 1(48) X(48) PANAMA CITY FL 50 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 22 13(35) 25(60) 7(67) 2(69) X(69) X(69) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 2 2( 4) 6(10) 4(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COLUMBUS GA 34 2 3( 5) 7(12) 9(21) 6(27) 2(29) X(29) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 2 4( 6) 10(16) 11(27) 4(31) X(31) X(31) BIRMINGHAM AL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 3 4( 7) 25(32) 15(47) 6(53) 1(54) X(54) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) MONTGOMERY AL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) WHITING FLD FL 34 28 23(51) 25(76) 5(81) 2(83) X(83) X(83) WHITING FLD FL 50 2 4( 6) 18(24) 8(32) 3(35) X(35) X(35) WHITING FLD FL 64 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) PENSACOLA FL 34 58 16(74) 13(87) 2(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) PENSACOLA FL 50 4 5( 9) 21(30) 8(38) 1(39) 1(40) X(40) PENSACOLA FL 64 2 1( 3) 8(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) GFMX 290N 870W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 870W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 870W 64 11 1(12) 1(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) MOBILE AL 34 56 28(84) 11(95) 2(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) MOBILE AL 50 3 23(26) 36(62) 10(72) 2(74) X(74) X(74) MOBILE AL 64 X 12(12) 29(41) 8(49) X(49) 1(50) X(50) GULFPORT MS 34 57 30(87) 8(95) 1(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) GULFPORT MS 50 4 37(41) 26(67) 6(73) 2(75) X(75) X(75) GULFPORT MS 64 2 24(26) 23(49) 4(53) X(53) 1(54) X(54) STENNIS MS 34 29 48(77) 12(89) 2(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) STENNIS MS 50 3 21(24) 23(47) 4(51) 2(53) X(53) X(53) STENNIS MS 64 1 13(14) 14(28) 2(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) BURAS LA 34 48 30(78) 8(86) 1(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) BURAS LA 50 3 19(22) 10(32) 2(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) BURAS LA 64 2 15(17) 7(24) 1(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) GFMX 280N 890W 34 29 22(51) 8(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) GFMX 280N 890W 50 3 4( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 280N 890W 64 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 3 6( 9) 21(30) 6(36) 2(38) 1(39) X(39) JACKSON MS 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 8 37(45) 18(63) 4(67) 2(69) X(69) X(69) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 2 6( 8) 8(16) 2(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 34 3 7(10) 5(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) GFMX 280N 910W 50 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 3 10(13) 13(26) 4(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MORGAN CITY LA 34 3 9(12) 10(22) 3(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 3 2( 5) 5(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) LAFAYETTE LA 34 3 4( 7) 5(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) NEW IBERIA LA 34 3 4( 7) 5(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FORT POLK LA 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) LAKE CHARLES 34 3 2( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) CAMERON LA 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) JASPER TX 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA NAS 34 87 5(92) 4(96) X(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) PENSACOLA NAS 50 9 15(24) 19(43) 4(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) PENSACOLA NAS 64 3 4( 7) 9(16) 4(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) KEESLER AB 34 78 18(96) 2(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KEESLER AB 50 7 51(58) 23(81) 4(85) 2(87) X(87) X(87) KEESLER AB 64 2 25(27) 28(55) 6(61) 2(63) X(63) X(63) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Sally Public Advisory Number 14
2020-09-14 22:43:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 142043 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Sally Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 400 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...SALLY A LITTLE STRONGER, ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED TONIGHT... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 87.4W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been extended eastward along the coast of the Florida panhandle to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line. The Hurricane Warning has been extended eastward along the coast of the Florida Panhandle to Navarre. The Tropical Storm Warning west of Morgan City Louisiana has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Watch along the coast of the Florida Panhandle has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Navarre Florida * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 87.4 West. Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A northward turn is expected by Tuesday, and a slow north-northeastward to northeastward motion is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move near the coast of southeastern Louisiana tonight and Tuesday, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area on late Tuesday or Wednesday. Data from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast tonight and early Tuesday and Sally is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Ocean Springs, MS to Dauphin Island, AL including Mobile Bay...6-9 ft Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border...4-7 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...2-4 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...1-2 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area late tonight and Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions expected to begin within the warning area this evening. RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it approaches land, producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeast Louisiana through the middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers. Sally is forecast to move farther inland early Wednesday and track across the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of eastern Mississippi, central Alabama, northern Georgia and the western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers. Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across the Florida peninsula today. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida. TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible through tonight over coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. The threat of tornadoes is expected to increase on Tuesday in these areas, as well as over parts of southern Mississippi and extreme southeast Louisiana. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect areas from the west coast of the Florida peninsula westward through the coast of southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Sally Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-09-14 22:43:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 142043 TCMAT4 HURRICANE SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE. THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NAVARRE. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE * MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE NAVARRE FLORIDA * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF OF NAVARRE FLORIDA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 87.4W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 30SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 87.4W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 87.2W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 29.2N 88.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 29.7N 88.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 30.4N 88.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 31.3N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 32.2N 86.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.9N 85.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 33.5N 83.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 87.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 15/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Paulette Graphics
2020-09-14 22:43:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 20:43:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 21:25:44 GMT
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Hurricane Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32
2020-09-14 22:41:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 142041 PWSAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tags: number
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hurricane
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