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Hurricane Sally Public Advisory Number 14A
2020-09-15 01:50:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 142350 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 700 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...OUTER RAIN BANDS OF SALLY MOVING ONSHORE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 87.5W ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Navarre Florida * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 87.5 West. Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (8 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Tuesday morning. A northward turn is likely by Tuesday afternoon, and a slow north-northeastward to northeastward motion is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move near the coast of southeastern Louisiana tonight and Tuesday, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area Tuesday night or Wednesday. Data from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast tonight and early Tuesday and Sally is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A buoy offshore of Orange Beach, Alabama, recently reported sustained winds of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a wind gust of 60 mph (97 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Ocean Springs, MS to Dauphin Island, AL including Mobile Bay...6-9 ft Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border...4-7 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...2-4 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...1-2 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area later tonight and Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions expected to begin within the warning area during the next few hours. RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it approaches land, producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeast Louisiana through the middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers. Sally is forecast to move farther inland early Wednesday and track across the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of eastern Mississippi, central Alabama, northern Georgia and the western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers. Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across the Florida peninsula today. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida. TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible through tonight over coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. The threat of tornadoes is expected to increase on Tuesday in these areas, as well as over parts of southern Mississippi and extreme southeast Louisiana. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Sally Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2020-09-14 23:56:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 21:56:11 GMT
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Hurricane Sally Graphics
2020-09-14 23:02:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 21:02:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 21:39:40 GMT
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Hurricane Sally Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-09-14 22:58:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 20:58:50 GMT
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Hurricane Sally Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-09-14 22:45:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 142045 TCDAT4 Hurricane Sally Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 400 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 After the rapid spin up of the inner core late this morning, the most recent aircraft passes through the center have not found any higher flight-level winds, however there have been a few SFMR winds of 85-90 kt reported. Using a blend of the flight-level and SFMR winds the initial intensity has been increased to 85 kt for this advisory. The next Air Force and NOAA aircraft have begun to sample the storm. Now that Sally has developed an inner core, the favorable atmospheric and ocean conditions of low vertical wind shear and warm water should allow for additional strengthening tonight while the system moves over the north-central Gulf of Mexico, and Sally could approach major hurricane strength. On Tuesday, the global models are predicting an increasing in southwesterly flow aloft, and this increase in shear, the potential for land interaction, and some upwelling over the shallower shelf waters over the northern Gulf should slow the intensification process. The NHC intensity forecast is again near the upper-end of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the HWRF and HFIP corrected consensus models. Sally did not move much earlier today as the center re-formation took place, but it appears that a slow west-northwestward to northwestward motion has resumed. Weak ridging over the southeastern United States is expected to steer Sally generally west-northwestward through early Tuesday. After that time, steering currents weaken and a slow northward motion is forecast as a weak mid-level trough develops over the the central United States. This trough is forecast to slide eastward, allowing Sally to begin a slow north-northeastward or northeastward motion. The specific timing and location of the turn will be critical as to the eventual location and timing of landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast. The UKMET and ECMWF models show a more northeastward motion after the turn and have trended eastward, with the ECMWF much slower than the remainder of the guidance. The NHC track has been adjusted eastward, and this requires and eastward extension of the hurricane warning. The new track most closely follows the GFS and it ensemble mean, but lies to the west of the various consensus aids, so some additional eastward adjustments could be needed in subsequent advisories. Given the uncertainty in the timing and location of the northward turn and the lack of well-defined steering currents, users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or the specific timing and location of landfall. Hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, and flooding rainfall will affect a large portion of the north-central Gulf Coast during the next few days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. It is too early to determine where Sally's center will move onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally's northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's average forecast error at 36 to 48 hours is around 60 to 80 miles, and dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the center. 2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in the Florida Panhandle, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected late tonight or early Tuesday within the Hurricane Warning area in southeastern Louisiana and are expected by late Tuesday and Tuesday night within the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines and the western Florida Panhandle. Tropical storm conditions are likely to begin this evening in these areas and preparations should be rushed to completion. 4. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to isolated major flooding, on area rivers along and just inland of the Central Gulf Coast. Significant flash and urban flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding is likely across Mississippi and Alabama through the middle of the week. Flooding impacts are expected to spread farther across the Southeast through the week. Sally could continue to produce flash flooding across the Florida peninsula and prolong existing minor river flooding across west-central Florida through today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 28.8N 87.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 29.2N 88.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 29.7N 88.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 30.4N 88.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/1800Z 31.3N 88.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 60H 17/0600Z 32.2N 86.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/1800Z 32.9N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/1800Z 33.5N 83.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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