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Hurricane Elida Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-08-12 10:34:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 120834 TCDEP4 Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Satellite imagery over the past several hours shows that the deep convection associated with Elida has been shrinking in coverage, while earlier microwave data revealed that the low-level center is on the southern edge of the convection. All of the available Dvorak data-T numbers have been on the decline tonight, and there remains a large spread in the Dvorak CI numbers, ranging from about 50-75 kt. The initial advisory intensity has been set to 65 kt, which is essentially a blend of the TAFB and SAB CI numbers along with the latest UW/CIMSS SATCON estimate. Elida is now moving over water temperatures below 24C, and the cyclone is heading towards even cooler waters. In addition, the cyclone's surrounding environment is expected to become increasingly drier and more stable over the next 24 h. These factors should cause Elida to rapidly weaken over the next day or so, with the cyclone expected to weaken to a tropical storm later today. After 24 h, vertical wind shear is forecast to increase, which should help to dissipate any remaining deep convection associated with Elida around that time. The latest NHC intensity forecast is very close to the various consensus aids through the period of rapid weakening, and is similar to the previous forecast. Elida is now moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt. This general motion is expected to continue through today, as the cyclone moves around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. By tonight, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken, which should allow Elida to turn northwestward with some additional slowing of its forward speed. This new motion should continue until the system becomes a remnant low. The latest NHC forecast is little changed from the previous and is near the well-clustered track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 23.0N 117.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 23.7N 119.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 24.8N 120.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 25.9N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/0600Z 27.2N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/1800Z 28.5N 123.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Elida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2020-08-12 10:34:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 120834 PWSEP4 HURRICANE ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 0900 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 120W 34 1 42(43) 3(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) 25N 120W 50 X 8( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Summary for Hurricane Elida (EP4/EP092020)
2020-08-12 10:33:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ELIDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 the center of Elida was located near 23.0, -117.7 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Elida Public Advisory Number 14
2020-08-12 10:33:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 120833 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Elida Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020 ...ELIDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 117.7W ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elida was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 117.7 West. Elida is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn to the northwest along with some decrease in forward speed is expected to occur tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected during the next day or so as Elida moves over colder water, and the cyclone is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm today and degenerate to a remnant low on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Elida are expected to affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Elida Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-08-12 10:33:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 120833 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 0900 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 117.7W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 117.7W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 117.2W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.7N 119.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.8N 120.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.9N 121.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.2N 122.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 28.5N 123.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 117.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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