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Hurricane Elida Graphics
2020-08-11 04:39:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 11 Aug 2020 02:39:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 11 Aug 2020 02:39:40 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Elida (EP4/EP092020)
2020-08-11 04:39:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ELIDA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN... As of 9:00 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 the center of Elida was located near 20.1, -112.1 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
Hurricane Elida Public Advisory Number 9
2020-08-11 04:39:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 142 WTPZ34 KNHC 110239 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Elida Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 ...ELIDA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 112.1W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM NW OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elida was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 112.1 West. Elida is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is possible on Tuesday, with weakening likely on Wednesday and Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Elida are expected to affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Elida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-08-11 04:39:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 141 FOPZ14 KNHC 110239 PWSEP4 HURRICANE ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 0300 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 7 18(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) 20N 115W 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 18(28) 5(33) X(33) X(33) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Elida Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-08-11 04:38:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 110238 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 0300 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 112.1W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 112.1W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 111.5W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.9N 113.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.9N 116.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.9N 118.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 23.7N 120.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.3N 121.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 25.0N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 26.0N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 112.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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