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Hurricane Elida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2020-08-11 10:44:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 110844 PWSEP4 HURRICANE ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 0900 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 6 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 25N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 8(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Hurricane Elida (EP4/EP092020)
2020-08-11 10:43:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ELIDA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... As of 3:00 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 the center of Elida was located near 20.7, -113.0 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
Hurricane Elida Public Advisory Number 10
2020-08-11 10:43:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 110843 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Elida Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020 ...ELIDA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 113.0W ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elida was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 113.0 West. Elida is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible this morning. Weakening is expected to begin by late afternoon and continue into Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Elida are expected to affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Elida Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-08-11 10:43:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 110843 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 0900 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 113.0W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 135SE 135SW 135NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 113.0W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 112.4W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.5N 114.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.4N 117.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.4N 119.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 45SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.1N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.0N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 25.8N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 27.7N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 113.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Elida Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-08-11 04:40:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 346 WTPZ44 KNHC 110240 TCDEP4 Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 The last few visible images before sunset showed that while Elida had developed a faint eye, recent microwave data suggest the eyewall is open on the north and northwest sides. Nonetheless, the system is still on a strengthening trend, and the latest wind speed is set to 75 kt, close to the latest TAFB/SAB intensity estimates. Elida continues moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. A mid-level ridge located over northern Mexico and the southwestern U.S. should steer the hurricane west-northwestward at about the same forward speed for another couple of days. The biggest change to report is that most of the guidance are showing this motion continuing (instead of a westward turn) or even a more poleward trend in a few days due to a mid-latitude trough. It is uncertain how vertically deep Elida will be at that point, but there is even a low-level weakness in the model fields, suggesting that a shallower Elida would still feel that trough. Consequentially, the new NHC official forecast is shifted roughly 90 n mi to the north by day 4, with continuity preventing a larger change. The forecast is still on the southern end of the guidance envelope, so further northward adjustments could still be required overnight. The hurricane has less than a day to further intensify before it then moves over cooler waters, which should start to weaken Elida. In a couple of days, a faster weakening is shown than the last advisory since the cyclone is more likely to cross over cooler waters more quickly than previously anticipated due to the northward track change, along with additional shear. Likewise, the post-tropical timing is also accelerated to day 3, which is consistent with the latest GFS/ECMWF simulated satellite data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 20.1N 112.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 20.9N 113.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 21.9N 116.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 22.9N 118.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 23.7N 120.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 13/1200Z 24.3N 121.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 14/0000Z 25.0N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0000Z 26.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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