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Hurricane Elida Graphics
2020-08-10 22:33:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 10 Aug 2020 20:33:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 10 Aug 2020 20:33:50 GMT
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Hurricane Elida Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-08-10 22:33:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 102033 TCDEP4 Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Elida continues to gradually gain strength. Satellite images show that the storm has a well organized central dense overcast and curved bands that surround that feature. Recent microwave images show a partial eyewall, but dry slots appear to be preventing it from completely closing off. The satellite intensity estimates have increased, and support upgrading Elida to a 65-kt hurricane. The center of Elida is passing just north of Socorro Island. The hurricane has about another day over warm water and in generally favorable atmospheric conditions, so some additional strengthening seems likely during that time period. After that, however, progressively cooler waters, drier air, and an increase in southerly shear in a few days should cause a steady weakening trend. Elida will likely become a remnant low in 3 to 4 days when it is forecast to be in quite dry conditions and over cool 23 C waters. The NHC intensity forecast continues to lie at the high end of the guidance in the short term, but falls near the middle of the guidance envelope beyond a couple of days. Elida is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. A mid-level ridge located over northern Mexico and the southwestern U.S. should steer the hurricane west-northwestward at about the same forward speed for another couple of days. After that time, the models diverge with the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF showing a more northward motion toward a mid- to upper-level trough. Conversely, the HWRF, UKMET, and other models show a more westward motion in the low-level flow. As a compromise, the NHC track forecast has been adjusted northward, but it still lies closer to the southern end of the guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 19.6N 110.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 20.4N 112.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 21.4N 115.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 22.3N 117.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 23.0N 119.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 13/0600Z 23.4N 121.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 23.8N 122.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 24.5N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Elida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-08-10 22:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 10 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 102032 PWSEP4 HURRICANE ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 2100 UTC MON AUG 10 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA SOCORRO 34 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA CLARION 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 34 3 49(52) 2(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) 20N 115W 50 X 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 115W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 115W 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 6(23) X(23) X(23) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Hurricane Elida (EP4/EP092020)
2020-08-10 22:32:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ELIDA BECOMES A HURRICANE... As of 3:00 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 the center of Elida was located near 19.6, -110.9 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Elida Public Advisory Number 8
2020-08-10 22:32:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 102032 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Elida Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 ...ELIDA BECOMES A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 110.9W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elida was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 110.9 West. Elida is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this heading with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated during the next day or so, but steady weakening is forecast to begin late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Elida are expected to affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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