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Hurricane Elida Forecast Advisory Number 13

2020-08-12 04:35:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 120235 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 116.5W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 116.5W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 116.0W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.2N 118.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.1N 119.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.1N 120.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.2N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 27.5N 122.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 116.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane Elida Graphics

2020-08-11 22:36:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 11 Aug 2020 20:36:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 11 Aug 2020 20:36:56 GMT

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Hurricane Elida Forecast Discussion Number 12

2020-08-11 22:35:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 112035 TCDEP4 Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Elida has not changed significantly in organization since the last advisory, as the storm continues to have a small cloud-filled eye inside a symmetric central dense overcast. Various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are slightly lower than the previous advisory, but they have not decreased enough to justify lowering the initial intensity yet. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 300/13 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement than Elida should move west- northwestward for the next 36 h or so. After that, the guidance is in better agreement that Elida should turn northwestward with a decrease in forward speed due to interaction with an upper-level low off of the coast of California. There is little change to the forecast track, which lies near the various consensus models, from the previous advisory. Elida is moving toward colder sea surface temperatures, with the center forecast to be over 23C water in 24 h and 22C in 48 h. This should lead to rapid weakening beginning in the next 6-12 h, with the global models forecasting the system to weaken to a trough by 72 h. The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance and calls for Elida to drop below hurricane strength in just over 24 h, degenerate to a remnant low by 48 h, and dissipate by 72 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 22.1N 115.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 22.7N 117.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 23.6N 119.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 24.6N 120.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 25.5N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/0600Z 26.7N 122.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Elida Forecast Advisory Number 12

2020-08-11 22:35:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 112035 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 2100 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 115.4W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 115.4W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 114.8W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.7N 117.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.6N 119.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.6N 120.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 45SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.5N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 26.7N 122.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 115.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane Elida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

2020-08-11 22:35:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 112035 PWSEP4 HURRICANE ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 2100 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 115W 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X 15(15) 38(53) 3(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) 25N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 14(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 25N 120W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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