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Hurricane Isaias Public Advisory Number 17A
2020-08-01 13:51:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 011151 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 ...RAGGED EYE OF ISAIAS NEAR EASTERN ANDROS ISLAND... ...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 77.5W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF ANDROS ISLAND BAHAMAS ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM S OF NASSAU BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning for the Central Bahamas has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Boca Raton to the Volusia/Flagler County Line Florida * Northwestern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Hallandale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida * Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Volusia/Flagler County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located by NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Bahamas radar near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 77.5 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest by late Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move near or over Andros Island in the Northwestern Bahamas this morning and continue to move near or over the rest of Northwestern Bahamas later today, and move near the east coast of the Florida peninsula tonight through Sunday. Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Sunday, and and Isaias is forecast to remain a hurricane during this time. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The minimum central pressure recently measured by the aircraft was 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the Northwestern Bahamas. WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue to spread over the Northwestern Bahamas later today. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area in Florida tonight and will spread northward through Sunday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area, and are possible within the watch area, over southern Florida by this afternoon or evening. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches. Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches. These rainfall amounts could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. From Friday night through Tuesday: South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Northeast Florida into coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches. Carolinas into the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. Minor river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and into Virginia. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern and central Bahamas. These swells will spread along the east coast of Florida and the southeastern United States coast today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Isaias Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2020-08-01 12:07:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sat, 01 Aug 2020 10:07:38 GMT
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Hurricane Isaias Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2020-08-01 11:51:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sat, 01 Aug 2020 09:51:58 GMT
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Hurricane Isaias Graphics
2020-08-01 10:58:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 01 Aug 2020 08:58:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 01 Aug 2020 09:24:58 GMT
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Hurricane Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-08-01 10:55:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 010855 TCDAT4 Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 Isaias has a somewhat ragged appearance in satellite imagery this morning, likely due to the impact of westerly shear and dry air entrainment. The area of central convection has shrunk in size, although radar data from the Bahamas shows some banding near the center and occasional attempts to wrap up an eyewall. Also, a dry slot is now present in the eastern semicircle between the central convection and the outer banding. The last Hurricane Hunter mission indicated that the maximum winds had increased to near 75 kt, so that is maintained for this advisory. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate the storm during the next several hours. The initial motion is now northwestward or 315/10 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged, as Isais should continue to move northwestward on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge today and begin to turn north-northwestward through a weakness in the ridge on Sunday. After that, the storm should recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies, with a turn toward the north-northeast and northeast with an increase in forward speed likely. The track guidance envelope has shifted a little to the east near the Florida coast and calls for a slower forward motion that the previous guidance. Thus, the new forecast track has been adjusted a little east of, and slower than, the previous track. The hurricane is currently undergoing about 25 kt of westerly vertical shear, and some mid-level dry air is present west of the center. This combination should prevent any more intensification, and, while Isaias is expected to remain a hurricane as it passes near the Florida coast, at least slight weakening should occur during this time. Current indications from the global models are that the storm will continue to experience strong shear as it recurves, and thus the intensity forecast follows the previous forecast in calling for weakening during this time. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of the Bahamas through Saturday, and Hurricane Warnings are in effect. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the Florida east coast late Saturday and Saturday night, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coast from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to 4 feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 4. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas, across South to east-Central Florida, and across the Carolinas to the mid Atlantic. Minor river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and into Virginia early next week. 5. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge spreading along much of the the U.S. east coast through early next week, and interests there should monitor the progress of Isaias and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 23.9N 77.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 25.0N 78.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 26.3N 79.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 27.6N 79.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 29.1N 80.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 31.2N 79.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 34.0N 77.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 41.5N 71.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 06/0600Z 47.5N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
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