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Hurricane Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

2020-07-31 22:49:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 31 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 312049 PWSAT4 HURRICANE ISAIAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 2100 UTC FRI JUL 31 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 3(20) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 2(22) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 2(23) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 1(23) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) X(23) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 1(25) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) X(25) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) X(23) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 1(28) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) X(28) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 24(31) X(31) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 24(34) X(34) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 23(30) X(30) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 21(36) X(36) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) X(20) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 20(36) X(36) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 17(36) X(36) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 11(26) X(26) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 8(31) X(31) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 4(24) X(24) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 18(25) 1(26) X(26) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 19(30) 1(31) X(31) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 1(14) X(14) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 11(32) 1(33) X(33) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15) ORLANDO FL 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 15(26) 6(32) X(32) X(32) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 4( 4) 27(31) 21(52) 7(59) X(59) X(59) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 X 4( 4) 27(31) 21(52) 7(59) X(59) X(59) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 11(11) 44(55) 14(69) 3(72) X(72) X(72) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) 17(17) 13(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) W PALM BEACH 34 2 26(28) 42(70) 6(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) W PALM BEACH 50 X 3( 3) 32(35) 5(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) W PALM BEACH 64 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FT LAUDERDALE 34 3 36(39) 27(66) 3(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X 6( 6) 20(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MIAMI FL 34 1 17(18) 19(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) MIAMI FL 50 X 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 1 13(14) 11(25) 2(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MARATHON FL 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) KEY WEST FL 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NAPLES FL 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) 2(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) FT MYERS FL 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 34 5 54(59) 20(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X 13(13) 26(39) 2(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 76 18(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 12 58(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 1 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ANDROS 34 95 3(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) ANDROS 50 61 17(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) ANDROS 64 17 22(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) GREAT EXUMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GREAT EXUMA 50 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) GREAT EXUMA 64 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN SALVADOR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAYAGUANA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Hurricane Isaias Public Advisory Number 15

2020-07-31 22:49:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 312049 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 75.7W ABOUT 195 MI...320 KM SSE OF NASSAU ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the east coast of Florida from Boca Raton to the Volusia/Brevard County Line. A Hurricane Watch is in effect from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line and from south of Boca Raton to Hallendale Beach. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the east coast of Florida from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedre Beach. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from the Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedre Beach. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Okeechobee. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Boca Raton to the Volusia/Brevard County Line Florida * Northwestern Bahamas * Southeastern Bahamas * Central Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Hallendale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida * Volusia-Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedre Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands * North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida * Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedre Beach Florida Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or warnings may be required later tonight and Saturday. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located by satellite imagery and Bahamas radar data near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 75.7 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a general northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest by late Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will continue to move near or over the Southeastern Bahamas this afternoon and evening. Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas tonight, and move near or over the Northwestern Bahamas Saturday and near the east coast of the Florida peninsula Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected later tonight and early Saturday, and Isaias is forecast to remain a hurricane for the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). A private weather observing station at Pitts Town Point, Bahamas, recently reported a sustained wind of 37 mph (59 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the Bahamas. WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue to spread northwestward into the central and northwestern Bahamas tonight and Saturday. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area in Florida late Saturday and Saturday night. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength on Saturday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches. Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches. These rainfall amounts could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. From Friday night through Tuesday: South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Northeast Florida into coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches. Carolinas into the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. Isolated minor river flooding is possible across the eastern Carolinas and into Virginia. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern and central Bahamas. These swells will spread along the east coast of Florida and the southeastern United States coast on Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 15

2020-07-31 22:49:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 31 2020 164 WTNT24 KNHC 312049 TCMAT4 HURRICANE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 2100 UTC FRI JUL 31 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BOCA RATON TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE AND FROM SOUTH OF BOCA RATON TO HALLENDALE BEACH. A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM JUPITER INLET TO PONTE VEDRE BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO PONTE VEDRE BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BOCA RATON TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HALLENDALE BEACH TO SOUTH OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA * VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JUPITER INLET TO PONTE VEDRE BEACH FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO SOUTH OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO PONTE VEDRE BEACH FLORIDA INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAIAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 75.7W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 70SE 30SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 150SE 90SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 75.7W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 75.2W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.9N 77.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.4N 78.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.8N 79.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 28.3N 80.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 30.0N 80.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 32.5N 79.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 39.0N 74.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 45.4N 65.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 75.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 01/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Hurricane Isaias Graphics

2020-07-31 19:52:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 31 Jul 2020 17:52:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 31 Jul 2020 16:46:06 GMT

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Hurricane Isaias Public Advisory Number 14A

2020-07-31 19:51:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 311751 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 200 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 ...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ISAIAS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.2N 75.2W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF NASSAU MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence, Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and Bimini * Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands * Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia-Brevard County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands * North of Ocean Reef northward to Sebastian Inlet A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Lake Okeechobee Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Bahamas radar near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 75.2 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a general northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the day or so followed by a turn toward the north-northwest. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will continue to move near or over the Southeastern Bahamas today. Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas tonight, and move near or over the Northwestern Bahamas Saturday and near the east coast of the Florida peninsula Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected later today and tonight, and Isaias is forecast to remain a hurricane for the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the Bahamas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the Turks and Caicos this morning. Hurricane conditions in the southeastern Bahamas will spread northwestward into the central and northwestern Bahamas tonight and into Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Florida beginning Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area beginning Saturday night and continuing into Sunday. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches. Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Hispaniola. From Friday night through Monday: South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. These rainfall amounts could result in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect the eastern Carolinas by early next week. This rain could result in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas, as well as isolated minor river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern and central Bahamas. These swells will spread into the central northwestern Bahamas later today and along the east coast of Florida and the southeastern United States coast on Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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