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Hurricane Isaias Public Advisory Number 14
2020-07-31 16:48:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 311447 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST... ...SQUALLY WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 74.5W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SE OF NASSAU MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of the Florida east coast from north of Deerfield Beach northward to the Volusia-Brevard County Line. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for portions of the Florida east coast from north of Ocean Reef northward to Sebastian Inlet and for Lake Okeechobee. The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Dominican Republic. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence, Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and Bimini * Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands * Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia-Brevard County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands * North of Ocean Reef northward to Sebastian Inlet * Lake Okeechobee Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Bahamas radar near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 74.5 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a general northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the day or so followed by a turn toward the north-northwest. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will continue to move near or over the Southeastern Bahamas today. Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas tonight, and move near or over the Northwestern Bahamas Saturday and near the east coast of the Florida peninsula Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible today and tonight, and Isaias is expected to remain a hurricane for the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the Bahamas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the Turks and Caicos this morning. Hurricane conditions in the southeastern Bahamas will spread northwestward into the central and northwestern Bahamas tonight and into Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Florida beginning Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area beginning Saturday night and continuing into Sunday. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches. Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Hispaniola. From Friday night through Monday: South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. These rainfall amounts could result in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect the eastern Carolinas by early next week. This rain could result in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas, as well as isolated minor river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern and central Bahamas. These swells will spread into the central northwestern Bahamas later today and along the east coast of Florida on Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-07-31 16:48:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 31 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 311447 TCMAT4 HURRICANE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 1500 UTC FRI JUL 31 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO THE VOLUSIA- BREVARD COUNTY LINE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SEBASTIAN INLET AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE... ELEUTHERA...ABACOS ISLANDS...BERRY ISLANDS...GRAND BAHAMAS ISLAND...AND BIMINI * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * NORTH OF OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SEBASTIAN INLET * LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 74.5W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT.......180NE 90SE 50SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 90SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 74.5W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 74.0W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.0N 76.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 50SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.8N 78.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.3N 79.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 27.7N 79.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 29.2N 80.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 31.6N 79.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 36.4N 76.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 43.3N 69.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 74.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 31/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Hurricane Isaias (AT4/AL092020)
2020-07-31 13:57:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SQUALLS LASHING THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS... As of 8:00 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 the center of Isaias was located near 21.3, -73.9 with movement NW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Hurricane Isaias Public Advisory Number 13A
2020-07-31 13:57:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 311157 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 800 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SQUALLS LASHING THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 73.9W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SE OF NASSAU MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning for Haiti has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence, Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and Bimini * Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands * Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines * Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Florida from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet * Lake Okeechobee Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required for a portion of the Florida peninsula later today. The Tropical Storm Warning for the Dominican Republic will likely be discontinued later this morning. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located by NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 73.9 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a generally northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next couple of days followed by a turn toward the north-northwest. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move near or over the Southeastern Bahamas today. Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas tonight, and move near or over the Northwestern Bahamas and be near or east of the Florida peninsula on Saturday and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible today, and Isaias is expected to remain a hurricane for the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). A private weather observing site at Long Bay Beach in Providenciales recently reported a sustained wind of 55 mph (86 km/h) and a gust to 59 mph (95 km/h). Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the Bahamas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the Dominican Republic and the Turks and Caicos this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the southeastern Bahamas this morning and spread into the central and northwestern Bahamas tonight and into Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning Saturday. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday: Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches. Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Hispaniola. From Friday night through Monday: South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. These rainfall amounts could result in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect the eastern Carolinas by early next week. This rain could result in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas, as well as isolated minor river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread along the coast of Cuba and into the central and northwestern Bahamas later today and along the east coast of Florida on Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Isaias Graphics
2020-07-31 13:57:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 31 Jul 2020 11:57:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 31 Jul 2020 09:25:01 GMT
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