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Hurricane Isaias Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-08-01 04:50:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 01 Aug 2020 02:50:25 GMT
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Hurricane Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-08-01 04:45:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 010245 TCDAT4 Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 Isaias has a somewhat asymmetrical appearance on satellite images, with lots of deep convection over the eastern semicircle and not as much over the western part of the circulation. Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has dropped a few mb, and flight-level and SFMR-observed surface wind observations from the aircraft indicate an intensity of near 70 kt. The hurricane is experiencing some westerly shear, and this is likely to limit intensification. However, some strengthening is still possible on Saturday. When Isais moves farther north in a couple of days, the shear should cause a gradual weakening trend to begin. The official intensity forecast is about the same as the previous one, and a little above the model consensus. The hurricane continues moving northwestward at a bit slower pace, or 310/13 kt. The general track forecast philosophy has not changed. Isais should continue to move northwestward on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge through Saturday and begin to turn north-northwestward through a weakness in the ridge on Sunday. Thereafter, a turn toward the north-northeast and northeast with an increase in forward speed is likely during days 3 to 5. The official track forecast is close to the previous one and also very close to the latest dynamical model consensus. The hurricane warning has been extended northward along the Florida east coast. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of the Bahamas through Saturday, and Hurricane Warnings are in effect. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the Florida east coast late Saturday and Saturday night, and a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coast from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to 4 feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 4. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas, across South to east-Central Florida, and across the Carolinas to the mid Atlantic. Isolated minor river flooding is possible across the eastern Carolinas and into Virginia early next week. 5. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge spreading along much of the the U.S. east coast through early next week, and interests there should monitor the progress of Isaias and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 23.3N 76.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 24.5N 77.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 25.9N 79.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 27.1N 80.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 28.5N 80.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 30.2N 80.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 33.1N 78.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 41.0N 72.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 47.5N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2020-08-01 04:45:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 946 FONT14 KNHC 010245 PWSAT4 HURRICANE ISAIAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0300 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 11(24) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 9(24) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) SPRINGFIELD MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 13(25) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 15(28) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 14(31) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 12(31) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 7(24) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 7(24) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 8(24) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 8(25) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) NEW LONDON CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) ALBANY NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 5(19) POUGHKEEPSIE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 9(32) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 5(25) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 4(27) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 4(22) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 3(20) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 2(20) TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 3(22) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 2(16) ALLENTOWN PA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 1(19) PHILADELPHIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 2(24) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 1(31) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 1(33) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) X(22) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) X(33) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 1(28) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) X(27) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 1(29) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 1(30) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 1(16) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) X(24) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 25(30) X(30) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) X(19) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 24(29) X(29) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 23(30) X(30) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 25(35) X(35) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 21(35) X(35) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 17(28) X(28) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 17(37) X(37) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 14(34) X(34) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 10(33) X(33) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 7(24) X(24) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 4(27) 1(28) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 2(22) 1(23) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 16(26) X(26) X(26) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 17(31) X(31) 1(32) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) X(16) X(16) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 17(26) 10(36) X(36) X(36) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) THE VILLAGES 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) ORLANDO FL 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 14(29) 5(34) X(34) X(34) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 8( 8) 34(42) 16(58) 5(63) X(63) X(63) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PATRICK AFB 34 X 8( 8) 33(41) 17(58) 4(62) 1(63) X(63) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT PIERCE FL 34 3 20(23) 40(63) 9(72) 3(75) X(75) X(75) FT PIERCE FL 50 X 2( 2) 24(26) 10(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) W PALM BEACH 34 4 45(49) 26(75) 3(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) W PALM BEACH 50 X 11(11) 27(38) 3(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) W PALM BEACH 64 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) FT LAUDERDALE 34 4 49(53) 14(67) 2(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X 12(12) 12(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MIAMI FL 34 2 22(24) 11(35) 1(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) MIAMI FL 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 2 13(15) 7(22) 1(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MARATHON FL 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) KEY WEST FL 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NAPLES FL 34 1 5( 6) 5(11) 2(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) FT MYERS FL 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) VENICE FL 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GRAND BAHAMA 34 17 61(78) 8(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) GRAND BAHAMA 50 1 34(35) 13(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 96 1(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 70 13(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 9 6(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ANDROS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ANDROS 50 75 1(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) ANDROS 64 52 2(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) GREAT EXUMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GREAT EXUMA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GREAT EXUMA 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Hurricane Isaias (AT4/AL092020)
2020-08-01 04:44:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ...ISAIAS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA TOMORROW... As of 11:00 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 the center of Isaias was located near 23.3, -76.4 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Hurricane Isaias Public Advisory Number 16
2020-08-01 04:44:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 010244 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ...ISAIAS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.3N 76.4W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF NASSAU ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Watch is changed to a Hurricane Warning from the Volusia-Brevard County line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Boca Raton to the Volusia/Brevard County Line Florida * Northwestern Bahamas * Central Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Hallandale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida * Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or warnings may be required on Saturday. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 76.4 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a general northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest by late Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move near or over the Central Bahamas tonight, near or over the Northwestern Bahamas Saturday and near the east coast of the Florida peninsula Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through early Saturday, and Isaias is forecast to remain a hurricane for the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the Bahamas. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring over portions of the Central Bahamas and will spread over the Northwestern Bahamas on Saturday. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area in Florida late Saturday and Saturday night and will spread northward through Sunday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength on Saturday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area, and are possible within the watch area, over southern Florida by Saturday afternoon or evening. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches. Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches. These rainfall amounts could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. From Friday night through Tuesday: South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Northeast Florida into coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches. Carolinas into the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. Isolated minor river flooding is possible across the eastern Carolinas and into Virginia. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern and central Bahamas. These swells will spread along the east coast of Florida and the southeastern United States coast on Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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