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Hurricane Isaias Graphics
2020-07-31 10:57:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 31 Jul 2020 08:57:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 31 Jul 2020 09:25:01 GMT
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Hurricane Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-07-31 10:56:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 310855 TCDAT4 Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 Satellite images indicate that Isaias is maintaining a small central dense overcast, with a new burst of convection recently forming near the center. Earlier aircraft data indicated that the pressure had fallen to 990 mb, although there was little from the aircraft that supported more than the previous advisory's intensity of 70 kt. The hurricane has been moving between west-northwest and northwest during the last several hours, estimated at 305/15 now. Isaias should gradually turn to the north-northwest and north over the weekend as it moves around the western periphery of a weakening western Atlantic subtropical ridge. Guidance is in fairly good agreement over the first couple of days of the forecast, so little change is made at that time, other than a small westward adjustment near the Bahamas. After that time, there is a considerable spread, growing to over 700 miles, in the reliable models on how quickly Isaias moves northeastward near the east coast of the United States. The large spread appears to be related to both how strong the cyclone is by early next week and how much mid-level ridging remains near the Carolinas. There are no obvious reasons to choose either the fast GFS or slow ECMWF right now, so the official forecast will remain close to the previous one and the model consensus. It should be noted that given this large spread, the extended forecast could be subject to large speed/timing changes if either of those solutions become more likely. Strengthening is expected during the next day or so while the hurricane remains over the very warm waters near the Bahamas with reasonably low vertical shear. The forecast for the first 24 hours has been raised from earlier, at the top of the guidance spread. Increasingly southwesterly flow aloft should cause an increase in shear over the weekend, which is forecast by most of the guidance to lead to a gradual decrease in intensity. The details are not very clear at all, especially considering the track uncertainty, but there is a notable chance of a hurricane moving close to the U.S. East coast, so the forecast continues to show that scenario. Key Messages: 1. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas. Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect South and east-Central Florida beginning late Friday night, and the eastern Carolinas by early next week, potentially resulting in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. Isolated minor river flooding is possible in the Carolinas early next week. 2. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of the Bahamas today and Saturday, and Hurricane Warnings are in effect for these areas. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 3. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the Florida east coast beginning Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect. While storm surge watches are not currently needed for this area, they may be required later today if the forecast track shifts closer to the coast. Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect South Florida and east-Central Florida beginning late tonight, potentially resulting in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. 4. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge late this weekend from the northeastern Florida coast and spreading northward along the remainder of the U.S. east coast through early next week. The details of the track and intensity forecast remain uncertain, and it is too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts, but interests along the entire U.S. east coast should monitor the progress of Isaias and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 20.9N 73.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 22.3N 75.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 24.0N 77.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 25.7N 78.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 27.3N 79.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 28.8N 79.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 30.6N 79.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 36.5N 75.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 42.5N 69.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2020-07-31 10:54:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 31 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 310854 PWSAT4 HURRICANE ISAIAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0900 UTC FRI JUL 31 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 5(19) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 5(30) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 3(25) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 2(23) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 2(31) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) 1(31) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 1(24) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 27(33) 1(34) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20(27) X(27) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20(28) X(28) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) X(20) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 13(25) X(25) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) X(18) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 3(18) X(18) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 3(22) X(22) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 1(22) X(22) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) X(16) X(16) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) 19(47) 1(48) X(48) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) X(16) X(16) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 19(46) 1(47) X(47) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) X(15) X(15) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 11(11) 29(40) 13(53) 1(54) X(54) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 7(21) 1(22) X(22) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) W PALM BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 22(23) 23(46) 8(54) X(54) X(54) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 1( 1) 22(23) 16(39) 5(44) X(44) X(44) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 4( 4) 50(54) 22(76) 4(80) X(80) X(80) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 17(17) 23(40) 4(44) X(44) X(44) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 3 56(59) 31(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X 8( 8) 47(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ANDROS 34 4 70(74) 8(82) X(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) ANDROS 50 X 28(28) 19(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) ANDROS 64 X 7( 7) 14(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GREAT EXUMA 34 68 29(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) GREAT EXUMA 50 5 72(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) GREAT EXUMA 64 1 29(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) SAN SALVADOR 34 52 14(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) SAN SALVADOR 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAYAGUANA 50 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GRAND TURK 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAMAGUEY 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Isaias Public Advisory Number 13
2020-07-31 10:54:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 310854 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 73.3W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SE OF NASSAU MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence, Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and Bimini * Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands * Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines * North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the northern border with the Dominican Republic * Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Florida from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet * Lake Okeechobee Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required for a portion of the Florida peninsula later today. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 73.3 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a generally northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next couple of days followed by turn toward the north-northwest. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move near or over the Southeastern Bahamas today. Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas tonight and move near or over the Northwestern Bahamas and near or east of the Florida peninsula on Saturday and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible today, and Isaias is expected to remain a hurricane for the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the Bahamas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the southeastern Bahamas this morning and spread into the central and northwestern Bahamas tonight and into Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning Saturday. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday: Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches. Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Hispaniola. From Friday night through Monday: South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. These rainfall amounts could result in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect the eastern Carolinas by early next week. This rain could result in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas, as well as isolated minor river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread along the coast of Cuba and into the central and northwestern Bahamas later today and along the east coast of Florida on Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-07-31 10:54:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 31 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 310853 TCMAT4 HURRICANE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0900 UTC FRI JUL 31 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...ELEUTHERA...ABACOS ISLANDS...BERRY ISLANDS...GRAND BAHAMAS ISLAND...AND BIMINI * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ENTIRE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN COASTLINES * NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO SEBASTIAN INLET * LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 73.3W AT 31/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 40SE 30SW 80NW. 34 KT.......180NE 90SE 50SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 210SE 90SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 73.3W AT 31/0900Z AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 72.7W FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 22.3N 75.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 50SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.0N 77.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.7N 78.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 27.3N 79.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 28.8N 79.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 30.6N 79.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 36.5N 75.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 42.5N 69.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 73.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 31/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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