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Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristina Public Advisory Number 26
2020-07-13 04:39:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 130239 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristina Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 800 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 ...CRISTINA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 126.5W ABOUT 1075 MI...1730 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristina was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 126.5 West. Cristina is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next two or three days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated and the remnant low will likely dissipate in a few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 26
2020-07-13 04:38:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 13 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 130238 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0300 UTC MON JUL 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 126.5W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 126.5W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 125.9W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.0N 128.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.5N 130.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 22.0N 133.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.6N 136.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 22.9N 139.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 126.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics
2020-07-12 22:34:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 12 Jul 2020 20:34:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 12 Jul 2020 20:34:27 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 25
2020-07-12 22:32:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 122032 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Cristina has been devoid of deep convection for several hours. The cyclone's circulation now consists of a large swirl of low- to mid-level clouds as it continues to move over waters of about 23 C and into a progressively drier and more stable surrounding atmosphere. Although intensity estimates continue to steadily decease, the vortex is taking some additional time to spin down, as indicated by a recent ASCAT-A overpass that showed maximum winds of 35 kt over a portion of the cyclone. Based on the ASCAT data, Cristina's intensity is being maintained at 35 kt for this advisory. Given the environmental conditions, it is unlikely that deep convection will redevelop near Cristina's center, and the cyclone is expected to become a remnant low soon. The associated winds will continue to decrease over the next couple of days and the low is forecast to open into a trough within a few days. Cristina is moving westward at 11 kt and this general motion is expected to continue until dissipation, as the system is steered by the low level easterlies. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 20.7N 125.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 21.0N 127.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 13/1800Z 21.4N 129.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/0600Z 22.0N 132.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1800Z 22.5N 135.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 15/0600Z 23.0N 137.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2020-07-12 22:32:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 122032 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 2100 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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