je.st

Home › cristina

Tag: cristina

Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 18

2020-07-11 05:16:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 682 WTPZ35 KNHC 110316 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 500 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 ...CRISTINA HOLDING ON OVER COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 116.8W ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 279 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 116.8 West. Cristina is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected into early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to begin over the weekend and Cristina is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Tags: number public storm advisory

Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 18

2020-07-11 05:16:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 683 WTPZ45 KNHC 110316 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 500 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 Cristina's appearance suggests that the system has gotten better organized over relatively cold waters than it ever did over warmer waters to the south. The cyclone has a banding eye-like feature, and cold cloud tops associated with deep convection have recently come close to wrapping all the way around the cyclone's center. Although subjective Dvorak intensity estimates at 00Z could justify calling Cristina a hurricane, the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON is 55 kt, and ASCAT data valid around 18Z had max winds of only 45 kt. The initial intensity is therefore held at 60 kt as a compromise of the various estimates. Cristina is forecast to be over 24 deg C waters in about 12 h and it would be surprising if it strengthened overnight. That said, given its current satellite appearance and otherwise favorable surrounding environment, I can not rule out the possibility that Cristina could briefly become a hurricane during the next few hours. In general, the NHC intensity forecast has not been substantially changed, and Cristina is forecast to gradually weaken for the next few days. Various dynamical models indicate that the tropical storm will maintain some deep convection for another couple days, and then become a post-tropical remnant low early next week. The tropical storm is forecast to continue moving steadily westward to west-northwestward for the next two to three days, steered by a mid-level ridge extending across most of the eastern North Pacific. After that time, the shallow remnant low should continue generally westward, steered by low-level easterly flow. The models are in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is on top of the multi-model consensus near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 20.1N 116.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 20.5N 118.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 21.0N 121.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 21.3N 124.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 21.7N 126.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 13/1200Z 22.0N 128.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 22.6N 131.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0000Z 23.5N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0000Z 24.0N 141.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18

2020-07-11 05:16:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 705 FOPZ15 KNHC 110316 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0300 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 120W 34 40 31(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) 20N 120W 50 1 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 120W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 120W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 9(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Tags: number speed wind storm

Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 18

2020-07-11 05:15:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 110315 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0300 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 116.8W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 279 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 116.8W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 116.1W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.5N 118.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.0N 121.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.3N 124.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.7N 126.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.0N 128.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 22.6N 131.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 23.5N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 24.0N 141.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 116.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Tags: number storm advisory tropical