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Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics
2020-07-11 22:41:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 11 Jul 2020 20:41:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 11 Jul 2020 20:41:40 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-07-11 22:40:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 11 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 112040 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 11 2020 Cristina's deep convection continues to decrease and is now primarily limited to a narrow ring of thunderstorms that wraps about 75 percent around the low-level circulation center. Although the convective pattern resembles an embedded eye feature, the convection is thin and becoming increasingly shallow due to cooler waters beneath the cyclone. The initial intensity has been lowered to 50 kt, which is above most of the satellite intensity estimates, based on the eye-like feature and a UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 51 kt at 1335Z. The initial motion remains westward or 280/12 kt. The global and regional models are tightly packed and in excellent agreement on Cristina maintaining this general direction and speed for the next three days. Afterwards, the shallow cyclone is expected to turn due west or possibly even south of west as the remnant low comes under the influence the easterly trade wind flow. The new NHC track forecast is a little south of the previous advisory track, mainly due to the more southward initial position. Cristina's forecast track will continue to take the cyclone over progressively cooler waters for the 120-h forecast period, thus, gradual weakening is expected. Cristina should become a depression in about two days, followed by degeneration into a remnant low shortly thereafter. The remnant low is expected to open up into a trough shortly after 120 h over the Central Pacific basin, but that could occur sooner than currently forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is essentially just an update of the previous forecast, and closely follows the IVCN consensus intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 20.6N 121.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 20.8N 122.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 21.1N 125.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 21.5N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 22.0N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 22.5N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1800Z 22.9N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1800Z 23.5N 140.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/1800Z 23.8N 145.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)
2020-07-11 22:40:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CRISTINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS... As of 11:00 AM HST Sat Jul 11 the center of Cristina was located near 20.6, -121.0 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 21
2020-07-11 22:40:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 11 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 112040 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 11 2020 ...CRISTINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 121.0W ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 121.0 West. Cristina is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the weekend and into early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Cristina will continue to steadily weaken over the next few days and become a remnant low by early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2020-07-11 22:40:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 112040 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 2100 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 125W 34 1 19(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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