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Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)
2020-07-12 16:32:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CRISTINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 the center of Cristina was located near 20.7, -124.4 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 24
2020-07-12 16:32:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 121432 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 ...CRISTINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 124.4W ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 124.4 West. Cristina is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Cristina is expected to become a tropical depression by tonight, and degenerate into a remnant low on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 24
2020-07-12 16:32:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 121432 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 1500 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 124.4W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 124.4W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 123.8W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 20.9N 126.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.3N 128.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.9N 131.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 22.4N 133.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.8N 136.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 23.3N 139.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 124.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2020-07-12 16:32:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 121432 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 1500 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 23
2020-07-12 10:34:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 120834 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Conventional satellite and scatterometer data indicate that Cristina has weakened during the past several hours. Deep convection has become fragmented near the center of the cyclone, with only a small amount in the eastern semicircle. A blend of the satellite estimates from TAFB/SAB gives an initial wind speed of 40 kt for this advisory, and this value is also quite close to a recent scatterometer pass as well. Cristina should gradually lose strength during the next few days due to a combination of very cool waters and increasing shear, along with nearby dry air. These factors will likely cause the storm to transition into a non-convective remnant low on Monday. The intensity forecast is lowered from the previous one, mostly due to the decreased initial intensity, and the remnant low timing is earlier as well. The storm is moving a little north of due west, or 275/11. A well-defined subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific should keep this general motion going for the next several days. The model guidance has changed little since the last cycle, so no significant changes were made to the track forecast. None of the global models hold onto the low-level circulation for long beyond 72 hours, so dissipation is now shown by day 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 20.7N 123.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 20.9N 125.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 21.2N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 21.6N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/0600Z 22.1N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/1800Z 22.6N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0600Z 23.0N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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