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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 20
2020-07-11 16:33:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Sat Jul 11 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 111432 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 500 AM HST Sat Jul 11 2020 ...CRISTINA BEGINNING TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 119.7W ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 119.7 West. Cristina is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue into early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Cristina is forecast to gradually weaken over the next few days and become a remnant low early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 20
2020-07-11 16:32:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 111432 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 1500 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 119.7W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 119.7W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 119.1W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.9N 121.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.2N 123.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.6N 126.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.1N 128.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 22.6N 131.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 23.1N 133.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 23.8N 139.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 24.0N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 119.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics
2020-07-11 10:34:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 11 Jul 2020 08:34:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 11 Jul 2020 09:31:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-07-11 10:33:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 110833 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 1100 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 Despite being over relatively cool 24 C waters, Cristina is maintaining its strength for now. Deep convection wraps most of the way around the center and is strongest on the south side of the circulation. There remains a large spread in the satellite intensity estimates that currently range from 45 kt to 65 kt. In addition, a recent ASCAT-B pass showed maximum winds of 45-50 kt north of the center. Based on a compromise of all of this data, the initial intensity is held at 60 kt. Cristina is moving toward even cooler waters and into a progressively drier and more stable air mass. These conditions should cause weakening soon, and the storm is forecast to lose all of its deep convection and become a post-tropical cyclone in about 60 hours when it will be over SSTs of around 22 C. The NHC intensity forecast generally follows the IVCN and HCCA consensus models and calls for steady weakening during the next several days. Cristina is still moving west-northwestward, and it should continue moving in that direction for the next couple of days as a mid-level ridge remains parked over the southwestern United States. Beyond that time, a westward motion is expected as the weak and shallow post-tropical cyclone should be steered by the low-level trade winds. The models remain in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 20.4N 118.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 20.7N 120.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 21.1N 122.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 21.5N 125.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 21.9N 127.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 13/1800Z 22.4N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 14/0600Z 22.9N 132.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0600Z 23.7N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0600Z 24.0N 142.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2020-07-11 10:33:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 110832 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0900 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 72 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) 20N 120W 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 1 3( 4) 16(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 25N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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