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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-07-07 04:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020 031 WTPZ45 KNHC 070232 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that convection has increased and become better organized since the previous advisory, although convection has waned somewhat during the past couple of hours due to entrainment of dry mid-level air. A 2213Z SSMI overpass showed a small but well-defined mid-level eye feature in the 85 GHz data and the latest TAFB satellite classification was T2.0/30 kt. Based on the improved banding features and the mid-level eye, the intensity has been increased to a conservative 35 kt. The initial motion estimate is 300/13 kt, based on a blend of TAFB and microwave satellite fixes. Cristina is expected to be steered west-northwestward throughout the forecast period along the southern periphery of a large deep-layer ridge that extends westward from the south-central and southwestern United States. The latest NHC model guidance has become more tightly packed around the previous forecast track, so only minor tweaks were made in the form of a slightly faster forward speed. The NHC track forecast lies close to the simple consensus models, which are a little south of the corrected-consensus model HCCA. Cristina is expected to remain in quite favorable environmental and oceanic conditions for the next 72 h or so. The small inner-core eye-like feature and the expected low vertical shear and impressive upper-level outflow conditions suggest that rapid intensification (RI) could occur at some point occur during that time. However, recent entrainment of dry mid-level air into the eastern semicircle has eroded convection in that part of the circulation, and the dry air may have even penetrated into and disrupted the inner core itself. Given the aforementioned uncertainty in the structure of the cyclone, RI is not being explicitly forecast at this time, although the official intensity forecast is higher than the previous advisory through 96 h. By 120 h, significant weakening should be well underway when Cristina will be moving over 24-deg-C sea-surface temperatures. The NHC official intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast, and there is a distinct possibility that Cristina could undergo RI and also become a major hurricane if the inner-core region has not been disrupted. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 11.2N 101.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 11.9N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 12.9N 105.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 13.9N 107.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 14.8N 109.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 15.7N 110.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 16.5N 112.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 18.1N 116.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 19.9N 121.6W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)
2020-07-07 04:32:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING... As of 10:00 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 the center of Cristina was located near 11.2, -101.3 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 2
2020-07-07 04:32:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 070231 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.2N 101.3W ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 101.3 West. Cristina is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days, keeping the cyclone well away from the coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and Cristina is forecast to become a hurricane by Wednesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-07-07 04:32:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 07 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 070231 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0300 UTC TUE JUL 07 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 101.3W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 101.3W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 100.8W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 11.9N 103.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 12.9N 105.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.9N 107.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.8N 109.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 15.7N 110.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.5N 112.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 18.1N 116.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 19.9N 121.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 101.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-07-07 04:32:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 07 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 070231 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0300 UTC TUE JUL 07 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 36(70) 1(71) X(71) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 29(38) 1(39) X(39) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 26(33) 1(34) X(34) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 37(43) 5(48) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 3(22) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 3(18) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 1(20) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 4(21) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 28(33) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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