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Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)

2020-07-08 16:53:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...CRISTINA STRENGTHENING WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 the center of Cristina was located near 14.6, -106.9 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 8

2020-07-08 16:53:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 081452 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 ...CRISTINA STRENGTHENING WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 106.9W ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 106.9 West. Cristina is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected by tonight, and that motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the cyclone will remain well offshore the coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and Cristina is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 8

2020-07-08 16:53:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 08 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 081452 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 1500 UTC WED JUL 08 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 106.9W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 106.9W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 106.5W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.4N 108.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.6N 110.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.6N 112.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.5N 114.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.5N 116.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.2N 119.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 21.0N 124.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 21.5N 130.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 106.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2020-07-08 16:53:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 08 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 081452 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 1500 UTC WED JUL 08 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 X 10(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 17(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 41(45) 24(69) X(69) X(69) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 18(37) X(37) X(37) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 12(23) X(23) X(23) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 34(49) X(49) X(49) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) X(20) X(20) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 16(50) X(50) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) X(20) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 5(23) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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