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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 4
2020-07-07 16:46:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 071446 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 ...CRISTINA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.2N 102.8W ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 102.8 West. Cristina is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days, keeping the cyclone well away from the coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is anticipated and Cristina is forecast to become a hurricane in a day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-07-07 16:46:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 07 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 071446 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 1500 UTC TUE JUL 07 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 1 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 15(15) 38(53) 6(59) X(59) X(59) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 5(27) X(27) X(27) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 4(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) X(20) X(20) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 26(64) 1(65) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 20(36) 1(37) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 14(24) 1(25) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 22(35) 1(36) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 1(16) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 20(43) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-07-07 16:45:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 07 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 071445 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 1500 UTC TUE JUL 07 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 102.8W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 102.8W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 102.3W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 12.9N 104.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.9N 106.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.0N 108.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 15.9N 110.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.9N 112.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 17.9N 113.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 19.5N 118.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 21.0N 123.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 102.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics
2020-07-07 10:32:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 07 Jul 2020 08:32:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 07 Jul 2020 09:24:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-07-07 10:31:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 070831 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 400 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 Deep convection is gradually expanding over the center of Cristina and in curved bands over the western portion of the circulation. An ASCAT-B overpass from around 0430 UTC showed maximum winds of around 35 kt. Based on that data and Dvorak estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin, the initial wind speed is held at 35 kt. Cristina is expected to strengthen during the next few days due to the favorable environmental conditions of low wind shear and warm SSTs, and its developing compact inner core as observed in satellite data. The only limiting factor is some dry air that has entrained into the eastern portion of the circulation. However, given the largely conducive conditions for strengthening, the NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the model guidance during the next 3 days. Although it is not explicitly forecast, rapid intensification could occur sometime during the next couple of days. Cristina will likely be moving over SSTs below 26 C and into a drier and more stable air mass late this week and this weekend, and that should induce a weakening trend. This intensity forecast is mostly an update of the previous one and in best agreement with corrected consensus model HCCA. Satellite fixes indicate that Cristina is moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt. The track forecast reasoning is fairly straightforward. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected to strengthen in place during the next several days. This should keep Cristina on a west-northwestward path well offshore of Mexico through the remainder of the week and into this weekend. Only minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this prediction lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 11.5N 102.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 12.2N 104.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 13.3N 106.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 14.3N 108.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 15.3N 109.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 16.3N 111.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 17.3N 113.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 18.9N 117.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 20.5N 122.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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