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Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)

2020-07-07 10:31:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...CRISTINA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 the center of Cristina was located near 11.5, -102.4 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 3

2020-07-07 10:31:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 070831 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 400 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 ...CRISTINA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.5N 102.4W ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 102.4 West. Cristina is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days, keeping the cyclone well away from the coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and Cristina is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

2020-07-07 10:31:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 07 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 070831 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0900 UTC TUE JUL 07 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 47(54) 15(69) X(69) X(69) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) 12(35) X(35) X(35) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) 10(33) X(33) X(33) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 2(15) X(15) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 31(59) 1(60) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 19(26) 1(27) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 1(22) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 5(18) 1(19) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 21(28) 1(29) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 30(43) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 3

2020-07-07 10:30:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 07 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 070830 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0900 UTC TUE JUL 07 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 102.4W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 102.4W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 101.8W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.2N 104.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.3N 106.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.3N 108.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.3N 109.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.3N 111.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.3N 113.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 18.9N 117.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 20.5N 122.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 102.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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