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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-07-08 04:36:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 08 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 080236 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0300 UTC WED JUL 08 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 105.3W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 105.3W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 104.7W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.7N 106.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.9N 108.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.0N 110.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.8N 112.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.8N 114.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.8N 116.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 21.4N 121.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 22.1N 127.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 105.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics
2020-07-07 22:34:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 07 Jul 2020 20:34:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 07 Jul 2020 20:34:58 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-07-07 22:33:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 667 WTPZ45 KNHC 072033 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 400 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 Cristina is still being affected by some northeasterly vertical wind shear as visible satellite imagery shows that the center is located near the northeastern edge of the large curved convective band. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 35 to 45 kt, and a recent ASCAT overpass revealed a small area of 35-40 kt wind vectors near the center. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set at 40 kt. The moderate vertical wind shear over the system is forecast to abate over the next 12-24 hours. This, along with SSTs of 28-29C, should allow for strengthening and Cristina is still forecast to become a hurricane in a day or two. Although Cristina has not strengthened as much as anticipated over the past 24 hours, with the more favorable atmospheric conditions anticipated beginning Wednesday, a period of steady to rapid strengthening is still possible. The latest intensity guidance shows a slightly lower peak wind speed than before, so the new NHC intensity forecast has been nudged in that direction. After 72 hours, Cristina will be moving over cooler waters and steady weakening is expected later in the period. Satellite fixes show that Cristina is moving west-northwestward or 305/11 kt. There has been no significant change to the track foreast reasoning. Cristina should continue on a west-northwestward heading over the next several days to the south of a large mid-level ridge over the southwestern United States. The overall track guidance envelop has shifted slightly northward, so the NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The new track forecast lies between the previous official foreast and the most recent consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 13.0N 103.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 13.8N 105.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 15.0N 107.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 16.1N 109.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 17.0N 110.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 18.0N 112.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 19.0N 114.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 20.5N 119.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 21.8N 125.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)
2020-07-07 22:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CRISTINA SLIGHTLY STRONGER... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 the center of Cristina was located near 13.0, -103.8 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 5
2020-07-07 22:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 072033 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 400 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 ...CRISTINA SLIGHTLY STRONGER... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 103.8W ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 103.8 West. Cristina is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days, keeping the cyclone well away from the coast of Mexico. Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated and Cristina is forecast to become a hurricane in a day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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